Australian Analyst – Harness Racing Best Bets 23rd-24th October
Harness racing best bets and tips for Friday and Saturday.
The South Australian Pacing Cup, 4YO Classic, Leap To Fame and Gus are the headline acts for the upcoming weekend’s racing. Here are our harness racing best bets for October 23 and 24.
Emma Stewart has the dominant favourite for the Group 3 South Australian Pacing Cup at Globe Derby on Saturday night, with The Last Trip at $1.35 ahead of main danger Forty Love at $4.40. Ultimate Vinnie has drawn the inside barrier which makes the Victorian assault very hard to beat in the race.
At Gloucester Park on Friday night, we get a taste of the upcoming Golden Nugget as the Group 2 4YO Classic features Mad Monday, Runkle Crunch and Cyclone Jordy.
Champion Leap To Fame steps out at Albion Park, as does star trotter Gus, with both Queenslanders heading over to New Zealand shortly.
Gloucester Park (Friday, October 23)
Race 4
HARRISON JOHN NZ (7) hasn’t won since arriving in WA, although he looks to get his chance here in the FFA. Deni Roberts will send the five-year-old forward searching for the lead or breeze. If he leads this time, I think he will prove too strong, but he could still breeze and go close to winning.
HUGOTASTIC NZ (10) is smashing the clock and if there’s pressure in the race, he will make them pay by running over the top. ALTA TRIBUTE (9) is ticking along nicely and has winning claims despite the bad draw. ROCKANDROLLARTIST (2) isn’t racing at his best but the draw means he could find the pegs to enhance his chances.
Selections: 7-10-9-2
HARRISON JOHN NZ (7) to win
Race 5
MAD MONDAY (4) will be the leader in the 4YO Classic and based on his first-up victory where he won by 12.8m in the Prelude, he looks very hard to beat. He rated 1:54.5 for the 2130m and that mile rate is good enough to win again. He is currently $1.60 and I’d like to see him get out closer towards $2 near race time.
RUNKLE CRUNCH NZ (5) is more versatile than Mad Monday which means he could still win this despite not being the leader. The ideal scenario would be 1 out 1 back cover behind Cyclone Jordy. Runkle Crunch can show toughness though, so breezing isn’t the end of his chances. CYCLONE JORDY NZ (9) is the boom horse of the crop and he was easily beaten by Runkle Crunch in the 4YO Championship. Let’s hope he runs well despite the car park draw. BELLY UP (2) and LINCOLN LOU NZ (6) have knockout claims if the race is run upside down.
Selections: 4-5-6-9
MAD MONDAY (4) to win
Trifecta: 4,5 / 4,5,6,9 / 2,4,5,6,9
Race 6
OPAL HUNTER (7) will need some luck from barrier seven as he will likely be back in the field, racing in the moving line. He is a horse that can produce a 55.5 last half, so if the leaders show any signs of stopping, he could swoop down the outside.
IMA FIVESTAR GENERAL NZ (12) is a stablemate and he also produces strong closing sectionals. Last start he was second behind Hold The Ammo. At double figures, he is worth a bet. SKYLORD (11) won well two runs back and is one of many chances in this race. TIGER ROYAL NZ (8) ran well in a stand recently and has each-way claims.
Selections: 7-12-11-8
OPAL HUNTER (7) to win & IMA FIVESTAR GENERAL NZ (12) to win
Globe Derby (Saturday, October 24)
Race 6
THE LAST TRIP (3) is the dominant favourite for the South Australian Pacing Cup and it’s easy to see why considering the four-year-old has won eight races from 12 starts. He captured his heat in track-record time, sitting outside the leader to win in 1:55.5 for the 2645m. There’s a huge chance he will go straight to the front and prove hard to beat.
ULTIMATE VINNIE (1) may end up three back on the pegs if Springfield Affair blasts over and then takes cover on The Last Trip. Whether trailing the favourite or three back on the fence, Ultimate Vinnie is going to be a great place chance. He led and won his heat, although the final is obviously much harder. SPRINGFIELD AFFAIR (5) was no match for The Last Trip despite leading, so taking a trail if Danielle Hill finds the pegs first would seem like a more logical decision this week. He has place claims. FORTY LOVE (6) cops the awkward draw but has enough ability to win if The Last Trip doesn’t lead. He won his heat in strong fashion.
Selections: 3-1-5-6
ULTIMATE VINNIE (1) to place
Race 7
MORE WANTED (12) finished second in his heat of the Group 3 South Australian Trotters Cup and this race is super competitive. The Victorian trotter finished fifth in a FFA event two starts back at Geelong and has been consistent against talented company in his home state. He gets the nod here, but this is very tricky and I could make a case for a handful of runners.
BITTA IRISH LUCK (7) is almost double figures and that looks a great price. She is a local trotter for Samantha Hill who trains and drives. She won her heat against Regal Attire, has a good stand record and also Globe Derby record with five wins and five seconds from 11 starts. REOFFENDER (6) will appreciate the front line once again and can win with the right run. THE VICARS GIRL (10) was a surprise winner of her heat, so can’t rule her out again. ALDEBARAN DEXTA (11) and REGAL ATTIRE NZ (13) have plenty of class.
Selections: 12-7-6-11
MORE WANTED (12) to win & BITTA IRISH LUCK (7) to win
Albion Park (Saturday, October 24)
Race 2
LEAP TO FAME (7) should have no trouble winning his fourth straight race at Albion Park. He is New Zealand Trotting Cup bound and the champ demolished rivals last start by 26m. He is $1.04 to win again, so we turn to the place market instead.
FOR REAL LIFE (1) has the inside draw and has trialled well leading into his first-up run. If he can kick up early to hold them and hand over to Larry, he gets his best chance of running a minor placing. DASHING (10) has strong place claims, although being in the moving line when they run time won’t be easy. TIMS A TROOPER (3) and HECTOR NZ (8) could also fill the placings.
Selections: 7-1-10-8
FOR REAL LIFE (1) to place
Race 3
GUS NZ (10) has a 50m handicap to contend with but he will still prove hard to beat despite the big mark. If this was a mobile, he would be $1.10 to win. The Inter Dominion Trotting Championship winner is heading to New Zealand and this is the starting point.
KEAYANG STUKA (9) comes off 30m and this may not be a big enough handicap advantage, but with a few runs under the belt, if he trots well, he may be able to test Gus. I liked his last start second behind Pinnie and now meets that trotter on level handicaps. Due to the price differential, I am happy to side with Keayang Stuka because an upset is possible. PINNIE (8) is probably the other winning hope in the race. It would be a shock to see any other runner win.
Selections: 10-9-8-6
KEAYANG STUKA (9) to win
Menangle (Saturday, October 24)
Race 2
STRIPES (4) is a Queensland filly and Cam Hart has picked up the drive with Pete McMullen driving in his local state. She has won four in a row, including a heat of the NSW Breeders Challenge. It looks a strong likelihood that Stripes can find the front here and she should be hard to run down.
EYE WISH (5) has won her past two at Wagga, both in 1:51 mile rates. Drawing outside Stripes hurts her chances a little bit, but she has excellent closing sectionals and should be thundering home. GO EASY ON ME (3) and APPLAUDING (2) are next best.
Selections: 4-5-2-3
STRIPES (4) to win
Races 5 & 8 – Multi
ARK SEA (6) looks to have her semi-final at her mercy following back-to-back victories. She beat the older horses at Wagga last start in 1:51.4. I think she looks a good multi anchor in Race 5.
The other horse that looks the likely winner of the semi-finals is DOUBLE LOU (8) in Race 8. He should work across the field to lead and if he races anything like his last preparation, he should be too good for rivals.
Multi: ARK SEA (6) in Race 5 to win & DOUBLE LOU (8) in Race 8 to win
Race 6
SWAYZEE (4) drops in grade after a first-up fourth in the Geelong Pacing Cup. On talent alone, he should just lead and win in this company. The $1.40 doesn’t appeal though.
HEZA PUNK ROCKER NZ (8) looks the main danger, especially if he could find the pegs. Stablemate SAINT CRUSADER (5) is racing really well and I like the place price about him. I think it’s worth having something small on the win too just in case Swayzee underperforms. ITS CONFIDENTIAL (9) looks next best.
Selections: 4-8-5-9
SAINT CRUSADER (5) each way
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by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink
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