Australian Analyst – Harness Racing Best Bets 6th-7th November
Harness racing best bets and tips for Friday and Saturday.
The Golden Nugget highlights a massive weekend of racing in Australia, while plenty of contenders for The Eureka line up at Menangle. Here are our harness racing best bets for Friday and Saturday.
Perth’s top 4YO pacers compete for $200,000 in the Retravision Golden Nugget at Gloucester Park, which sees Runkle Crunch as a dominant favourite. He will be tested by Mad Monday, Lincoln Lou and Lazi Dais, while the barrier has hurt the chances of one-time top seed Cyclone Jordy.
The mares compete for $100,000 one race earlier with Delightful Peg and Copy Cat Queen expected to dominate the Norms Daughter Classic.
At Wagga, The Bidgee is worth $100,000 and boasts a stacked field with Nyack, Palladium, Hesitate, Our Sunset Delight, Forty Love, Max Delight and Ubetcha Tigerpie competing in a wide-open contest over 2800m.
On Saturday, there are stars everywhere, including the favourite for The Eureka as Loucasso is expected to win again. Emma Stewart has brought some firepower to the meeting with ambitions of securing multiple slots in The Eureka. Some of these include Cigano, The Art Of Success and The Last Trip.
Gloucester Park (Friday, November 6)
Race 4
COPY CAT QUEEN (11) should be primed for the rich Norms Daughter Classic following a brave second placing behind Delightful Peg in slick time. She is at her best when leading or racing sit-sprint style, so seeing her race tough and beat all bar one rival was phenomenal. The map looks quite good here following out Fakenit. If she could land 1 out 2 back or thereabouts, she should be very dangerous late.
DELIGHTFUL PEG NZ (3) has quickly established herself as a top mare in the west, winning seven from 11 for the powerful Gary Hall Snr and Jnr combination. If she leads, then she is the horse to beat but looks too short at $1.55. FAKENIT (2) hasn’t taken the next step at this stage of her career, but she races best on speed and will try and do that here. Gate speed can be hit and miss though. PENNY BLACK NZ (7) looks next best.
Selections: 11-3-2-7
COPY CAT QUEEN (11) to win
Race 5
RUNKLE CRUNCH NZ (3) has drawn the best of the big guns in the Golden Nugget and Aiden De Campo will be keen to charge out knowing that Mad Monday will have the same ambitions. Reinette showed blinding gate speed last start and could hinder Runkle Crunch’s chances if she crosses because that may allow Mad Monday to stroll to the front. Runkle Crunch is versatile though, so he can win this race a number of different ways.
LINCOLN LOU NZ (1) should get a lovely trail and he has been racing exceptional from poor draws. He can definitely win the big race now and if there’s too much pressure and the gaps open up, he will make them all pay with his closing speed. MAD MONDAY (6) wins if he crosses, but if he doesn’t then he is likely to be tested, especially if caught without cover. LAZI DAIS (2) looks a knockout chance after winning well last start. I better mention CYCLONE JORDY NZ (9) who will need them to go ballistic to be a winning chance from that draw.
Selections: 3-1-6-2
RUNKLE CRUNCH NZ (3) to win
Trifecta: 1,3,6 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,2,3,6
Race 6
MAGNIFICENT STORM NZ (9) had a rare blemish last start with a first-up 11th when trying to sit outside Minstrel and finishing well back. Happy to forgive one poor run but the outside gate and $1.55 look too short. It will be no surprise to anyone if the superstar just wins for fun.
SWEET PINS NZ (12) has become a devastating sit-kick horse, winning two starts back by a huge margin. He was then good when third behind We Walk By Faith. There is a chance that Mighty Ronaldo tries to hold out Magnificent Storm and that would bring Sweet Pins right into the race. MIGHTY RONALDO (3) was appealing when bigger odds but the market has come for him, so I have shifted to Sweet Pins. HARRISON JOHN NZ (8) has knockout claims but the draw is tough this week.
Selections: 9-12-3-8
SWEET PINS NZ (12) each way
Race 10
MAJOR DISCO (12) is the class horse of the race and he drops sharply in grade from much harder 4YO events. He has only won five times from 34 starts but hasn’t met a field like this in about five starts when he ran second to Chaco Eagle. If he gets put into the breeze, then it becomes interesting, otherwise he is quicker than rivals and could come with one run if close enough, in which case he may be too slick late.
CHARIVARI (5) is constantly around the mark and that looks the case again. He will try and lead which would give him strong claims, otherwise he’s more likely to be a minor place hope. CURADH (6) is racing well and DELULU (8) is another class runner of the field that can win despite the bad draw.
Selections: 12-8-5-6
MAJOR DISCO (12) to win
Wagga (Friday, November 6)
Race 8
SEASIDE BOULEVARD (11) is the class runner of the field and will need to show all of that ability to win from the back row. She is just a three-year-old filly taking on older horses. Her heat win was dominant and she was runner up in the Queensland Oaks won by Ripples after racing back in the field. Her speed is her best asset and Wagga is a big track which suits.
WATERMAIN LADY (8) gets the services of Mark Pitt once again and this mare can run the gate hard. I assume the first plan is to try and lead – if they can do that, she could record a fifth-straight win. TUKAHA (2) is the other key winning chance in the TAB Regional Championship Final.
Selections: 11-8-2-10
SEASIDE BOULEVARD (11) to win
Race 9
FOREVER ONTHE PUNT (2) has been racing in tremendous form since joining trainer Brad Hewitt with three wins and a second. He won in 1:50.3 two runs back before running second behind Double Lou in the NSW Breeders Challenge Final for 4YOs. This is a class rise in The Bidgee but he looks big each-way odds and could be leader’s back behind stablemate Palladium.
PALLADIUM NZ (3) is a horse on the rise, still only a 3YO. He looks the leader in the event and he is a strong stayer. HESITATE (10) joins Jason Grimson and he has always been a very fast horse. If he shows any improvement with the new trainer, he will be hard to beat in this. OUR SUNSET DELIGHT (9) is a stablemate to Hesitate and gets a soft trip which he loves. He was third in the Victoria Cup last start and looks big odds here from a three back on the pegs scenario. NYACK (14), FORTY LOVE (11), MAX DELIGHT (12) and UBETCHA TIGERPIE (13) could all win this race too, but they will be relying on Palladium to underperform against the older horses.
Selections: 2-3-10-9
FOREVER ONTHE PUNT (2) each way
Menangle (Saturday, November 7)
Race 1
LOUCASSO (7) goes around for what might be his final run before The Eureka. He should have no trouble finding the lead and will look to control the race over the longer 2300m this week. It would be a huge shock to see him beaten at $1.08 odds.
I AM THE STORM (11) looks the logical Quinella option but there is no value in the place odds and the exotics may be quite skinny with the leading duo. ENJABONARLO (1) would love to trail Loucasso and if that can happen, then he could do enough to cling on for a minor placing. BUZZ BOMB (8) was a big run last time behind Palladium. It is just the draw that is worrying.
Selections: 7-11-1-8
ENJABONARLO (1) to place
Trifecta: 7 / 1,8,11 / 1,8,11
Race 5
THE ART OF SUCCESS (9) has been a winning machine for Emma Stewart, capturing 10 in a row. She sat outside Wicked Confession in the Vicbred Super Series Final and proved too strong, narrowly holding off Miss Ari in slick time from the breeze. She has to go on top here, but this is her first look at Menangle and they race quite differently compared to Melton.
WICKED CONFESSION (6) joins Jason Grimson and the change of scenery may prove to be the difference. Besides that point, she was an excellent run last start, beaten just 1.3m by Palladium in 1:49.6. That run and her third against Let Her Roll were terrific and she can win here. LET HER ROLL (10) is the second seed for Stewart here but she is a very talented one. Her last start saw her win the Ladyship Cup. GOLLY GEE FELLAS (7) and LUX AETERNA (12) are next best.
Selections: 9-6-10-7
THE ART OF SUCCESS (9) to win
Race 7
GANDHI MAIL ITA (10) has the best form in the race and should be using gate speed trying to find the top. At the time of writing, the trotter doesn’t have a driver listed. He won back-to-back races at Menangle before tackling the Bill Collins Sprint and running fifth, finding the Victorian trotters to be too good as he ran fifth.
NELLIE JOY (3) is my best roughie in the race and the former Queensland mare is now with Jarrod Alchin. Young star driver Will Rixon takes the drive again and she was an honest effort from a shocking barrier draw last start. If they can settle closer in the run, I think she can run better than the $41 odds. LONDON TO A BRICK (9) trialled well leading into his first-up run. He is a hard trotter to catch these days but his best form is good enough.
Selections: 10-3-9-5
NELLIE JOY (3) each way
Race 8
ALERT BAY (7) continues to smash the clock, chasing home the likes of Loucasso and Yottie, although he beat home the latter in their recent encounter which was won by Loucasso. The smaller field should ensure James Rattray is within striking distance because I am not sure he will chance the arm early trying to cross the field. Two runs back he raced outside the leader in a 1:49.6 mile rate.
MOST EXCITING (6) is another Emma Stewart runner and he has won five races in his career, just like Alert Bay. He was placed in the Vicbred Super Series Final won by stablemate Enjoy Life. Looks a big threat in the race. Funnily enough, SHOWMETHETANLINES NZ (3) has also won five races and he is right in this race too. Outside of that trio, FRIZZA (2) looks the only other winning chance and has beaten home Alert Bay.
Selections: 7-6-2-3
ALERT BAY (7) to win
For complete harness racing fields, click here.
by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink
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