Australian Analyst - Menangle March 7

Menangle

Race 2

The first heat of the NSW Derby looks a great race for Jason Grimson’s SHOWMETHETANLINES NZ (3). A winner of four races from seven starts, most of those for trainer Adam Kelly, the three-year-old colt now joins Grimson. The plan will be to lead with Cam Hart driving. He already boasts a 1:51.5 victory in the Listed Tatlow Stakes (1609m) and his effort behind Hollywood Strip when beaten 13.1m was still admirable as he was the first horse without cover down the back straight.

SOHO TRUMP (8) represents Michael Stanley and has won four of six career starts. He has excellent gate speed, but not sure he can cross from this barrier. The Group 2 Vicbred Super Series 2YO Colts & Geldings Final (2240m) winner looks the main danger to the favourite. Outside of that pair, EYENEEDTHAT (1), IM NO TROUBLE (2), NOCTURNAL (5) and REWATCH (6) look next best in the race.

Selections: 3-8-6-1

SHOWMETHETANLINES NZ (3) to win

 

Race 3

The second heat of the NSW Derby looks an intriguing race on paper with lots of different form lines converging. Perhaps the most intriguing runner is the Bernie Hewitt-trained and driven three-year-old gelding YOTTIE (4). He has won three of his four starts, including a 1:53.3 victory at Bathurst. He is racing first-up here after four recent trials, including a strong 1:52.9 victory where he sat three back on the pegs and sprinted over the top late in 28.1 and 27.0 splits. It will be interesting to see what time he runs at Menangle – if he gets cover and is close enough, he can run them down in the straight.

FIRE AND PASSION (1) has the runs on the board with nine wins from just 11 starts for trainer-driver Grant Dixon. He is the favourite, but it is his first trip away from Albion Park. At around the even-money mark, I think there are dangers that can beat him. SOHO CHARMER (7) finished fifth behind Hollywood Strip last time, recording personal splits of 1:51.0, 53.3, 25.5. He finished fourth in the Group 2 Vicbred Super Series 2YO Colts & Geldings Final (2240m) and has the class to go close even from the wide draw. Plenty of respect for MAXO MIGHTY (2) and USYK (3) from good draws.

Selections: 4-7-1-2

YOTTIE (4) to win

SOHO CHARMER (7) to win

 

Race 4

The third and final heat of the NSW Derby and it is hard to go past the Jason Grimson-trained ZEUS LIGHTNING NZ (6) who was simply awesome in defeat behind Hollywood Strip last time out. He was three back on the pegs and finished 5.1m from the winner. This is his first run for Grimson and his last run suggests he will be hard to beat – if he shows even a hint of improvement like some horses do under his care, then he may break 1:50 in this heat.

Looking beyond the favourite, I give place hopes to ALERT BAY (1), MOVE IT LOU NZ (2), EMPEROR (5), SOHO PARK AVENUE (7) and FUGITIVE NZ (8). That’s not to say they can’t win the race, but a lot depends on how ZEUS LIGHTNING NZ (6) performs because his last run and any natural progression suggest he looks the winner on paper.

Selections: 6-2-8-7

ZEUS LIGHTNING NZ (6) to win 

 

Race 5 

There is some serious firepower in the Group 2 International Animal Health Sprint (1609m) with the champ LEAP TO FAME (4) lining up. Standing in his way is DON HUGO (1) and HI MANAMEISJEFF NZ (5) who both draw well, while CHASE A DREAM NZ (9) and CAPTAINS KNOCK (12) fared poorly with the barrier draw.

Boasting six wins from nine starts at the track, including NSW Derby (2400m) and 2024 Miracle Mile (1609m) victories, LEAP TO FAME (4) has to go on top. He has had another excellent preparation, winning the Ballarat Pacing Cup (2710m), Cranbourne Gold Cup (2555m) and Kilmore Pacing Cup (2180m) before a hard-fought narrow second in the Hunter Cup (2760m) won by Swayzee. If he brings any of that recent form, he will prove very hard to beat.

DON HUGO (1) and HI MANAMEISJEFF NZ (5) will both want the pegs with the former potentially handing up to the latter. Both can run serious time on the fence and have winning claims. One of the trio should win unless they go ballistic early and set it up for another class runner like CHASE A DREAM NZ (9) or CAPTAINS KNOCK (12) to swoop over the top, but it will be hard for runners drawn poorly in this race.

Selections: 4-1-5-9

LEAP TO FAME (4) to win

 

Race 6 

The Group 2 Bioworma Sprint (1609m) also boasts its share of firepower with Hunter Cup (2760m) winner SWAYZEE (12) taking on up-and-comers THE JANITOR NZ (1) and RAKERO ROCKET NZ (5) and that’s before we add superstar NZ Trotting Cup (3200m) winner Kingman into the fold. His run in the Hunter Cup was incredible. Lastly, New Zealand visitor PINSEEKER NZ (2) is also worthy of mention in the race.

RAKERO ROCKET NZ (5) should have the gate speed to lead this time around as not being able to find the pegs may have cost him the Group 2 Newcastle Mile (1609m) won by Bulletproof Boy. Cam Hart sticks with SWAYZEE (12) which looks an interesting decision given the speed map and the fact that he is a much better stayer whereas RAKERO ROCKET NZ (5) at present is looking like a mile speed machine. I am putting RAKERO ROCKET NZ (5) on top as Jye Coney picks up the drive. He looks a driver for the future and gets his chance at the big races.

KINGMAN NZ (8) is the other major player in the race. My concern is if he has to do too much work in the run, but his brilliance could still see him victorious. THE JANITOR NZ (1) can run quick sectionals and it’s just a matter of where he is in the run from that inside draw.

Selections: 5-8-1-2

RAKERO ROCKET NZ (5) to win

 

Race 7

The Group 1 Chariots Of Fire (1609m) will see the most dominant mare in Australia, CAPTAINS MISTRESS NZ (3), chase a sixth straight victory and that almost looks a foregone conclusion based on recent form. She has belted everyone in front of her since joining trainer Jason Grimson. Two starts back she claimed the Group 1 Queen Of The Pacific (2760m) by a whopping 24.6m. Last week, she won the Listed Paleface Adios Stakes (1609m) by 9.5m in 1:48.9. Such is her dominance; she is the $1.04 favourite for the race.

DOUBLE LOU (1) is a talented horse in his own right, winning 10 of 15, but this is another step up and Bailey McDonough may have to settle for a minor placing behind the superstar mare. Should trail the favourite in the run which gives him a great shot at finishing second. HESITATE (11) is one of the most talented horses in the race, but his task looks extremely difficult after drawing barrier nine. Still has strong place claims. MY ULTIMATE BARNEY (2) and FINAL DEADLINE NZ (9) look the other key hopes to run into the placings.

Exacta: 3 / 1

Trifecta: 3 / 1,11 / 1,2,9,11

 

Race 9

Trainer Luke McCarthy is no stranger to good horses and his two-year-old colt DON HUNTER (2), a son of Huntsville, has trialled superbly in preparation for the Listed Sootha Sapling Stakes (1609m). He won a trial by a large margin, rating 1:54.6, 29.2, 26.7. That last quarter was phenomenal for a horse about to make his debut. If he replicates that trial effort, he looks the winner.

THEMIDNIGHTEXPRESS (4) is a Victorian colt for trainer Damien Burns who won at his only start at Maryborough. Should derive improvement from that win. Both RISEABOVETHEREST (3) and PASSION AND PAIN (9) are last start winners. They will need to improve again in order to topple the favourite.

Selections: 2-4-3-9

Trifecta: 2/ 3,4,9 / 3,4,7,9