Australian Analyst – Menangle March 14

Menangle (Saturday, March 14)

Race 3

This Group 2 FFA is basically the Miracle Mile consolation where RAKERO ROCKET NZ (4) who is first emergency for the Miracle Mile looks hardest to beat. Cam Hart will be handlebars down looking for the lead. Last week, they relinquished that spot and had to look for an inside run, finishing third behind The Janitor. The six-year-old gelding prefers leading and will most likely be in that position.

HI MANAMEISJEFF NZ (7) is another horse that loves to lead but I am not sure the stablemate will give up the position this week. He may have to slot in somewhere close to the speed or race without cover. SPEAK THE TRUTH (2) has a good draw and each-way claims in the race, as does NYACK (1). Outside of those, UBETCHA TIGERPIE (3) and WAR DAN BUDDY (6) are probably the other winning hopes, although to a lesser extent than some of the more fancied runners.

Selections: 4-2-7-1

RAKERO ROCKET NZ (4) to win

 

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Race 4

The Group 3 JL Raith Memorial (1609m) is for the 3YO Fillies and there is an impressive trio of runners in this event. RIPPLES NZ (8) has won five of her 10 starts and she was a really good effort when beaten 8.4m by older mare Tokyo Rose in 1:49.2. Last year, RIPPLES NZ (8) narrowly beat SPARKLING SEA (10) in the Group 1 Gold Tiara Final (1730m) at Bathurst. Seeing the pair clash again will be great to see.

SPARKLING SEA (10) has won four races from six starts, including a recent 1:51.5 victory at Wagga. She is capable of working hard in her races so the wide draw shouldn’t deter her. Throw in Queenslander HAVTIMETODREAM NZ (6) who has won all three races since arriving in Australia. At the latest, she rated 1:54.7 over the 2138m at Albion Park.

Going with RIPPLES NZ (8) on top as she has excellent gate speed and I think she can get to the fence and trainer-driver Luke McCarthy has options from there. Boilover chances to COCOS DESIRE (4) and CAPTURE OUR HEART NZ (2).

Selections: 8-10-6-4

RIPPLES NZ (8) to win

 

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Race 5

The Group 1 Hammerhead Trotters Mile (1609m) sees the megastar of trotting, KEAYANG ZAHARA (4), chase a 15th Group 1 victory and she is about $1.25 to do so. She has drawn well in barrier four and Jason Lee will be searching for the front. She will most likely find the front from WATTS UP PARTYTIME (1) who is finding his best form again. He doesn’t appear to have that lightning quick quarter in him like KEAYANG ZAHARA (4) or GUS NZ (12) can produce, but from gate one, he has very strong place claims in the race.

GUS NZ (12) is ODM (out of draw in mobile starts) which means he was always going to draw the car park. He is a trotter that could potentially give the favourite a run for her money, but this draw means he will be giving her a huge head start in the race.

JILLIBY BALLERINI (3) is a star in her own right but is overshadowed by her stablemate KEAYANG ZAHARA (4). It’s hard to envision others running into the money unless some of the top chances do something wrong.

Selections: 4-3-1-12

Trifecta: 4 / 1,3,12 / 1,3,12

 

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Race 6

The Group 1 NSW Derby (1609m) showcases heat winners SHOWMETHETANLINES NZ (1) and ZEUS LIGHTNING NZ (5) representing Jason Grimson, and unbeaten colt HOLLYWOOD STRIP (12) represent Brad Hewitt. Advantage immediately goes to Grimson with barriers one and five. Cam Hart has chosen ZEUS LIGHTNING NZ (5) which looks a big lead as he will most likely press on to find the top with SHOWMETHETANLINES NZ (1) probably content to race behind the leader. After his run in the Listed Simpson Memorial (1609m) won by HOLLYWOOD STRIP (12), I have been keen on ZEUS LIGHTNING NZ (5) if he got a draw, so I have him as the hardest to beat.

SHOWMETHETANLINES NZ (1) will enjoy a pegs run regardless and should have plenty to offer late. This may come back to make me look silly, but I think the unbeaten run of HOLLYWOOD STRIP (12) comes to an end from this shocking draw. He will most likely have to do a lot of work, plus cover extra ground – if he wins, then the future will be super exciting as he will stamp himself as the best three-year-old in the country.

Both SOHO TRUMP (4) and SOHO CHARMER (9) are good enough to win based on their talent. They will need luck from the respective draws though. YOTTIE (8) is another horse that I have a lot of respect for and FIRE AND PASSION (2) has a stack of talent. It’s a thrilling Derby despite the fact it’s run over the mile this year.

Selections: 5-1-12-8

ZEUS LIGHTNING NZ (5) to win

 

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Race 7

The feature race of the night, the Group 1 $1 million Miracle Mile (1609m), has had a massive build up and it’s finally here. Not the quickest front line which gives SWAYZEE (2) a chance to boot through from the inside to try and lead. According to trainer Jason Grimson, wonder mare CAPTAINS MISTRESS NZ (4) will not be used off the gate which goes against her recent racing pattern of leading. First emergency RAKERO ROCKET NZ (9) is the quickest on the front line and if he gains a start, he is one that could fly across at the start to lead or try and look for a re-take from SWAYZEE (2).

This is the type of race where you can look at it two or three times and come up with a different solution. CAPTAINS MISTRESS NZ (4) loses Cam Hart which gives young Jye Coney the drive of a lifetime. Coney is quickly becoming a staple at Menangle and if he can find cover 1 out 1 back or 1 out 2 back, the four-year-old mare possesses one of the quickest quarters in the race. With pressure from Queensland champion LEAP TO FAME (5) to whoever leads, it could set it up for a horse close enough to the speed to run over the top.

Another Queensland horse THE JANITOR NZ (6) was brilliant winning his qualifier, racing wide on the track in the latter stages to finish too quickly for SWAYZEE (2). As long as he doesn’t get shuffled too far back due to his lack of gate speed, then he could be very dangerous in the race.

Rounding out the field is second emergency SPEAK THE TRUTH (1), KINGMAN NZ (3), CHASE A DREAM NZ (7), BULLETPROOF BOY (8) and defending champion DON HUGO (10). Good luck to everyone involved, and I will predict a 1:48.2 mile rate.

Selections: 4-6-5-2

CAPTAINS MISTRESS NZ (4) to win

THE JANITOR NZ (6) to win

 

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Gloucester Park (Friday, March 13)

Race 5

Gloucester Park’s main race this week is named after one of their best pacers, Im Themightyquinn, a three-time Inter Dominion winner. Unlike many races that Quinny contested, there is no odds-on favourite here as this is an extremely open race where finding the winner will be no easy task.

Justin Prentice prepares THE IRON DUKE (8) who has finished eighth in both runs this prep. The latest came in the Group 3 Pinjarra Cup (2692m) won by star horse Magnificent Storm. He was out the back in that race and was unable to run on late in a 27.6 personal last quarter. He races better on the pace, especially from outside the leader, but not sure that spot will be up for grabs with MINOS NZ (7) in the race. I think THE IRON DUKE (8) is racing better than his numerical form and could run a race at odds.

I could make a case for almost every horse in the race, except for SUGAR STREET NZ (1) and LONGREACH BAY (3) who look outclassed.

Selections: 8-4-5-10

THE IRON DUKE (8) each way

 

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Geelong (Friday, March 13)

Race 6

The Geelong Pacing Cup (2570m) only has a small field of six but there are four winning hopes with SMOKEN ACE NZ (1) leading and MACH DAN (4), JILLIBY NITRO (5) and OLIVER DAN (6) all likely to race in the moving line.

It will be the first try at distance for SMOKEN ACE NZ (1) so happy to overlook him at this stage, especially if he is a clear favourite in the race. MACH DAN (4) has the most experience over staying trips, previously winning the Geelong Pacing Cup twice and running well in Hunter Cups. Mark Pitt sticks with the nine-year-old gelding rather than driving OLIVER DAN (6). I will follow that lead also here.

JILLIBY NITRO (5) likes to be driven for luck. The smaller field helps his cause and is good enough to win.

Selections: 4-1-6-5

MACH DAN (4) to win

 

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