The Insider – Australian Analysis May 7 Edition

Friday night’s Gloucester Park meeting has a pair of Group 3 events, the WASBA Breeders Stakes and 4YO & 5YO Championship, while the Group 1 NSW Trotters Derby will be run at Menangle on Saturday night.

The NSW Trotters Derby is for 3YO trotters and has a dominant favourite with Keayang Bazlenka lining up. Unlike the pacing Derby, which was run over the mile this year, the trotting Derby is over 2300m.

Team Bond has the strong hand in the 4YO & 5YO Championship with Mad Monday and Golden Lode engaged. The same can be said for the WASBA Breeders Stakes with Aardiebytheseaside and Captainshavtime engaged for the powerhouse stable.

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Gloucester Park (Friday, May 8)

Race 4

The Group 3 WASBA Breeders Stakes (2130m) has a full field of 12 mares plus two emergencies competing for $50,000 in prizemoney. Last year’s winner Penny Black is absent from this year’s line-up, but the 2024 winner Aardiebytheseaside will try to capture her second win in the event for Greg and Skye Bond who also have Captainshavtime in the race. Consistent open class mare Copy Cat Queen has drawn barrier three for Aiden De Campo, while last year’s winning trainer Michael Young has Heavenly Gipsy from barrier one.

An interesting speed map could play out here with both HEAVENLY GIPSY (1) and CAPTAINSHAVTIME NZ (2) possessing brilliant gate speed. One of the two will lead, which means AARDIEBYTHESEASIDE NZ (11) gets a great run through at the start. COPY CAT QUEEN (3) should restrain trying to find the back of AARDIEBYTHESEASIDE NZ (11) if possible. FAKENIT (6) will likely press forward to find the breeze with Gary Hall Jnr driving her for a second straight start.

In a tricky race to decipher, AARDIEBYTHESEASIDE NZ (11) looks guaranteed to get a good run through at the start with cover. Deni Roberts drove her a treat last start when making a move to the breeze at the right time to hold off COPY CAT QUEEN (3). The prior run from AARDIEBYTHESEASIDE NZ (11) was excellent and she looks hardest to beat in the race.

CAPTAINSHAVTIME NZ (2) and HEAVENLY GIPSY (1) can both run a good race if they lead – they won’t want to cop pressure from FAKENIT (6) though as that would open it up for others. RUBY LOVERA (5) ran an improved race last start and it will be interesting to see if she can produce another good run; she has blowout place claims if the race is run upside down.

Selections: 11-3-2-1

AARDIEBYTHESEASIDE NZ (11) to win

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Race 5

The Group 3 4YO & 5YO Championship (2130m) looks set to be dominated by the Greg and Skye Bond stable with Mad Monday boasting a winning streak of five, including a win in the Group 2 Preux Chevalier 4YO Classic (2536m). His stablemate Golden Lode was runner up in both the Group 1 The Nullarbor (2536m) and Group 1 Fremantle Cup (2936m). Standing in their way is last year’s WA Derby (2536m) winner Runkle Crunch.

Deni Roberts faced a nice dilemma in the race and has opted for MAD MONDAY (6) rather than GOLDEN LODE NZ (5). I would assume that gate speed was the deciding factor as MAD MONDAY (6) can fly the gate and will likely find the front as those horses drawn inside would be happy to sit on a classy horse that is racing in exceptional form. The manner in which the four-year-old gelding is winning has been impressive and if he finds the lead as anticipated, it will be hard to catch him.

GOLDEN LODE NZ (5) has faster closing sectionals than his stablemate and if Kyle Symington can land a position close to the speed or even the breeze without running along, then his class could see him topple MAD MONDAY (6). Looks a great race between the pair. RUNKLE CRUNCH NZ (11) is better suited not facing the breeze so he will need some luck from barrier 11. SWEET PINS NZ (1) can mix his form but the inside barrier gives him place claims. DOUBLE PARKED NZ (12) is a former Kiwi, so I would prefer to see his first run in the west before assessing where he is at.

Selections: 6-5-11-1

MAD MONDAY (6) to win

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Menangle (Saturday, May 9)

Race 6

The Group 1 NSW Trotters Derby (2300m) sees the return of Keayang Bazlenka, a three-year-old gelding for Marg and Paddy Lee. He has won six of his seven career starts and was runner up in the other. Most notably, he won the Group 1 Vicbred Super Series Final (2240m) for his age group and also the Group 1 Breeders Crown Final (2240m). On both occasions, Howdy Mate ran second and Munny The Munster finished third.

It is hard to go past KEAYANG BAZLENKA (2) with his record to date as he resumes from a spell. He recently had a Terang trial, defeating stablemate Jilliby Dreamlover in 2:01.6, 58.4, 28.1. If he brings his A-game, he looks the winner of the Derby but is $1.30 to do so.

We will look at the place market instead. SUPERIOR STRIDE (7) has excellent gate speed and they are likely to chance their arm trying to cross before handing up to a suitable rival, following a 1:56.6 victory to break his maiden last time out. MUNNY THE MUNSTER (6) is versatile, capable of doing work and still fighting it out, or sitting back and running home strongly. He has strong place claims. Same goes for HOWDY MATE (3) and NOTANOTHA NAUGHTY (5). Most of the field can run a place with the right run.

Selections: 2-6-5-3

MUNNY THE MUNSTER (6) to place

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For complete race fields, click here.

by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink