The Insider – Australian Analysis April 30 Edition

Menangle hosts four Group 1 events on Saturday night, headlined by the Queen Elizabeth II Mile and NSW Oaks.

Captains Mistress will be all the rage in the $200,000 Queen Elizabeth II Mile and she has drawn perfectly in barrier two. Her main rival is Eye Keep Smiling in barrier four.

The NSW Oaks looks a terrific contest with talent galore and plenty of winning chances. It is also worth $200,000 in stakes.

Jilliby Ballerini is the headline trotter in the $100,000 Macarthur Mile, while the 3YO trotting fillies compete in the NSW Trotters Oaks which is worth $75,000.

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Menangle (Saturday, May 2)

Race 4

The Group 1 NSW Trotters Oaks (2300m) looks an intriguing race with Victorian visitors Jilliby Aura and Adelaide Red receiving favourable barrier draws. Facing them is local hope Elle Perfecto who has won two of three starts since joining trainer Luke McCarthy.

JILLIBY AURA (5) is a last start Bendigo winner where she sat parked to defeat IJUSTCANTSEEIT (6). She is set to renew her rivalry with ADELAIDE RED (4) who won the Breeders Crown 2YO Trotting Fillies Final (2240m) in December, and ELLE PERFECTO (10) who was runner up in that event with JILLIBY AURA (5) in third place. Glen Craven has options from barrier four, but priority one will be trying to find the lead.

ELLE PERFECTO (10) is thriving since moving to NSW and she won in 1:59.1, 57.7 over course and distance last time out. She looks a huge threat as does ADELAIDE RED (4) who can run a quicker last quarter than most of this field. The improver looks to be ALDEBARAN ADA (1) from the inside barrier. IJUSTCANTSEEIT (6) is a blowout chance at odds.

Selections: 5-10-4-6

JILLIBY AURA (5) to win

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Race 6

The pacing fillies get their chance with the Group 1 NSW Oaks (1609m) being run over the mile. Three heats were run last week with Willows Girl taking out the first in 1:50.9, 55.2. The second heat went to Ark Sea in a more subdued 1:52.7, 56.9, while the third heat was won by Arrhythmia in 1:50.2, 54.4. Cam Hart had the choice of drive between Willows Girl and Arrhythmia, both trained by Emma Stewart, and has selected Arrhythmia despite drawing barrier seven.

ALWAYSBJOY NZ (4) is a Queensland filly who won four-straight Albion Park victories before trekking south for a heat of the Oaks. She was a brilliant third place from a bad barrier draw when finishing 4.9m behind WILLOWS GIRL (5) and RIPPLES NZ (10). From barrier three, Pete McMullen can use her gate speed to look for the fence. She has shown her ability to run well from a disadvantageous position and looks a great each-way bet in the race.

ARRHYTHMIA (9) continues to show her class, winning nine of 11 career starts. Cam Hart electing to drive her is a big lead and she will go close with her speed. ARK SEA (12) draws the car park, but her brilliance could still see her win, while WILLOWS GIRL (5) is the other key winning chance, but the field has so much depth that SENSES (3), RIPPLES NZ (10) and SPARKLING SEA (11) can also win.

Selections: 4-9-12-5

ALWAYSBJOY NZ (4) each way

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Race 7

Fresh off her Group 1 victory in the Sumthingaboutmaori Trot (2240m) at Melton, Jilliby Ballerini is the dominant favourite to capture the Group 1 Macarthur Mile (1609m). On paper, it should be a repeat affair of last start with the star five-year-old mare recording an 18th win and taking her career stakes above $500,000.

JILLIBY BALLERINI (4) should put forward another dominant display as she searches for the lead from barrier four. She is the $1.20 favourite for the race and rightly so. JILLIBY DREAMLOVER (3) looks a huge chance to run second behind her stablemate. ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (8) and THE PRIESTESS (9) are the other key place hopes in the race. Exotics appear to be the best way to play this race.

Selections: 4-3-8-9

Exacta: 4 / 3

Trifecta: 4 / 3,8 / 3,8,9

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Race 8

The Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Mile (1609m) is at the mercy of Jason Grimson’s superstar four-year-old mare Captains Mistress. Her winning streak came to an end in the Group 1 Miracle Mile (1609m) won by champion Leap To Fame, but she was a terrific run to finish fifth, beaten 6.7m after being held up. Such is her dominant form; Captains Mistress is a $1.15 favourite for the race.

CAPTAINS MISTRESS NZ (2) will have no trouble leading from barrier two and she has been kept up to the mark since her Miracle Mile run with a dominant 1:51.0 trial. Some of her victories prior to the Miracle Mile were unbelievable and there’s no reason to think she won’t handle this field with relative ease.

EYE KEEP SMILING (4) was a terrific winner of the Robin Dundee Stakes (1609m) as she worked hard to reel in TOKYO ROSE NZ (10) who stopped late. EYE KEEP SMILING (4) looks a great place chance in the race, especially if she can land some cover rather than trying to punch the breeze in slick sectionals. LUX AETERNA (3), STENO (7) and GUNNA RELOAD (9) look prominent place chances in the race.

Selections: 2-4-7-9

EYE KEEP SMILING (4) to place

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For complete race fields, click here.

by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink