Merlin ready to defy Spring Cup handicap

Merlin may prove the exception to one of harness racing’s golden punting rules in the IRT Spring Cup at Alexandra Park tonight.

Because while betting on back markers who are fresh up in open class races is usually a pretty efficient way to get rid of any surplus money you have lying around, Merlin might be able to pull it off tonight.

Merlin has started off a 20m handicap in this race the last two years and been beaten both times by stablemate Sooner The Bettor, who led and paced his last 800m in 56 seconds and Merlin couldn’t catch him.

That could happen again with a different leader tonight but the circumstances are significantly different this time and may enable Merlin to end the curse of the backmarkers.

There are only six runners in the 2200m stand tonight and the one on the front line is lower grade pacer Mick Konstantin, who shouldn’t be a winning factor.

So Merlin’s 20m handicap is really only 10m behind the winning chances in the other race and that includes two of his own stablemates Jeremiah and Better Knuckle Up, as well as American Me and Rubira.

American Me may be the fittest horse in the race but is a nine-year-old and even if he leads, which is likely at some stage, he really shouldn’t be able to beat our best northern pacers at his age.

Jeremiah is also fit but has standing start concerns and being wide on the 10m mark he is 50-50 at best to settle in front of Merlin while Better Knuckle Up was soundly beaten by Merlin at the trials last week and looks at least one run away from being ready to win.

So that leaves Rubira, who was excellent beating Jeremiah fresh up last start, as the danger but he has only had one career standing start and was also beaten fair and square by Merlin when they trialed last week.

So all things being equal Merlin is the most likely winner but punters face the conundrum of having to take odds-on about a pacer trying to do something most pacers don’t do anymore.

Champion trainer Barry Purdon says Merlin is the best of his and training partner Scott Phelan’s three chances but he doesn’t underestimate the challenge.

“We are thrilled with him and he seems in a really good space after that workout win last week,” says Purdon.

“The small field definitely helps but it is only his first start back and if he did settle last I wouldn’t want to see Zac [Butcher, driver] sending him mid race.

“So the start might be crucial but he can win because he is so well.

“Jeremiah is our next best hope and I think Better Knuckle Up is just carrying a bit more condition than the other two so he will improve with this race.”

How Jeremiah and Rubira step could ultimately decide the outcome because if either was able to press for the lead or sit a spot ahead of Merlin that might be enough advantage to beat him.

But if Merlin is in the first four starting the last 800m most of these won’t have enough speed to hold him at bay.

The Purdon/Phelan team also bring their best trotters back to the races tonight where both Meant To Be (R5, No.9) and Higher Power (No.5) face handicaps in a beauty of a race.

Fitness will be with favoured rival Youneverknow but Hillbilly Blues deserves favouritism as he is a Group 1 winner and looked very sharp at recent trials.

On a short but very sweet night at The Park the two-year-old pacing fillies race for $100,000 in the Caduceus Club Final where whoever races up to their best out of Daisy Bay (R6, No.3) and Belle Biddy (6) should win, with the latter favoured even from the wider draw.

And the two-year-old boys contest a strong Sires’ Stakes heat where Lucky Luka is very short from a wide draw in a race where Coal Fire might be the value if he improves on a hard fresh up run.

To see the Auckland fields click here

by Michael Guerin, for Harness Racing New Zealand