The pinnacle for harness racing three year olds to aspire to in New Zealand are the two derbies held each year.

This Friday night sees the running of this years $250,000 Great Northern Derby at Alexandra Park and this is our runner by runner preview of the race

Great Northern Derby – 2015

1) Have Faith In Me – Starts – 9  –  Wins 4  –  Seconds 2  –  Thirds 0   –   Stakes $202,302

Probably the most talked about horse pre race due to the draw. 

Most pundits think he is likely to be crossed early from barrier one which when added in with his history of having a few fancy steps early when rushed out of the gate makes him vulnerable.

We are not convinced it is as dire as that and driver Tim Williams is confident gear changes lately have helped him immensely in giving him more confidence.

If he does hold up, he immediately becomes the horse that Follow The Stars has to beat

A must for all quinella, trifecta and first four players.

2) Express Stride  –  Starts 14  –  Wins 4  –  Seconds 5  –  Thirds 3   –   Stakes $126,945

Ultra consistent horse who from this draw becomes a major player.

Can leave the gate so able to take advantage of his good draw.

Has been beaten by two or three here in the past when it counts and for that reason we just have that slight doubt over his ability to beat this field.

Great trainer/driver in Tony Herlihy is a big plus so a must have for quinellas, trifectas and first fours.

3) Kept Under Wraps  –  Starts 11  –  Wins 5  –  Seconds 4  –  Thirds 0   –   Stakes $149,805

This horse has a great overall record but just a notch down from the top two or three.

Great manners and ringcraft means he is always thereabouts

Very similar in makeup to Express Stride and has been the runner up to Follow The Stars on several occasions now.

Draw means he is a player here but more  a place than a win chance for us.

4) Robbie Burns  –  Starts 6  –  Wins 3  –  Seconds 0  –  Thirds 1   –   $18,503

Has really made his mark in the last couple of months but this race has come a bit too soon for him in our view.

Has been thrown in the deep end a bit here but won't disgrace himself.

Still at this stage a few here look to have a ringcraft and experience advantage which counts for a lot in races like this.

Not for us

5) Art Union  –  Starts 22  –  Wins 12  –  Seconds 5  –  Thirds 1   –   Stakes $141,763

He has been a very busy horse all season but continues to race well at the highest level.

Great third in the New South Wales Derby last Sunday after burning the gate and not much doubt that Dexter will go forward this week from barrier five as well.

Good enough to get some of it but a question mark over his ability to beat two or three here.

Trifecta and first four player for us.

6) Itz Bettor To Win  –  Starts 10  –  Wins 6  –  Seconds 2  –  Thirds 0   –   Stakes $81,475

He is a real tradesman like horse and one that tends to sneak under the radar most of the time.

Is three for three on the track and each win has been better than the last. 

Blair Orange climbs aboard so he lacks nothing in the driver department and appeals to us as the most likely upsetter of the favoured trio.

Must have for quinella, trifecta and first four takers.

7) Delighful Offer ( 1st Emerg) –  Starts 12  –  Wins 2  –  Seconds 2  –  Thirds 4   –   Stakes $34,946

Bit of a surprise to us that he is on the ballot here as we rate him higher than a couple of others that did make the field.

Got a bit of bottom to him as he showed when running fourth in the $200,000 sales race on New Years eve at Alexandra Park after sitting parked

Not a major player even if he did made it back into the field.

8) Follow The Stars  –  Starts 16  –  Wins 13  –  Seconds 2  –  Thirds 0   –   Stakes $548,415

Champion two year old who put a couple of below par seconds in Victoria behind him when he comprehensively beat most of these last week

Drew the outside of the second line last week, looped them early and beat them up without being extended.

Had a few things go his way for all that but stable very confident there was plenty of improvement left in him heading forward to this week.

On that basis he is the horse to beat but he doesn't need too much bad luck to come back to this field.

Include in everything.

9) Hughie Green  –  Starts 12  –  Wins 7  –  Seconds 0  –  Thirds 0   –   Stakes $55,621

The enigma of the field for sure who when he is good, he is very good and when he is bad he is awful.

At his best he could win this but very disappointing run in the prelude last week.

Not sure he is at the same level he was before he went south for the Sires Stakes final in November when he was just absolutely low flying.

If the real Hughie Green comes to play they will know they have been in a race.

However needs to improve a lot off last weeks run to be the threat we know he can be.

10) Change Stride  –  Starts 12  –  Wins 4  –  Seconds 1  –  Thirds 3   –   Stakes $ 47,629

Has been in great form since Cup week at Addington except for last weeks prelude where he got shuffled back on the inner and was no hope from there a long way out so we have put a line through that run.

Follow The Stars beat him by a neck in the Waikato Guineas and his third in the Northern three year old stakes in December was also full of merit.

Not a winning hope but can certainly bump up those trifectas and first four dividends.

11) Bettor Spirits  –  Starts 24  –  Wins 4  –  Seconds 4  –  Thirds 5   –   Stakes $90,958

Needs everything to go his way to be a player in this race and from this draw that is very unlikely to happen.

Very disappointing run in the prelude where after getting a great drag into it, he just battled in the straight. 

His run three starts back in the sales race on New Years eve was also very disappointing.

Not for us.

12) Chachingchaching  –  Starts 18  –  Wins 4  –  Seconds 2  –  Thirds 1   –   Stakes $75,547

Has always looked capable of matching it with the big boys but went through a bad patch there for a couple of months.

Change of driver a couple of months seems to have worked the trick with him and his last few runs have all been full of merit against quality fields.

Not a winning chance for us but another one who is more than capable of running into the money with the right run.

An added bonus is his driver David Butcher is back to his very best lately after being sidelined last year through injury.

13) Brilliant Strike  –  Starts 11  –  Wins 6  –  Seconds 2  –  Thirds 3   –   Stakes $51,460

Yet to finish out of the money in eleven starts and stuck on gamely for third last week after doing plenty of work.

Extra distance right up his alley but we are still not completely convinced he is the real deal at this level.

Another bad draw and a much stronger field this week means we struggle to see him as a major player here.

Outside first four player for us.

14) Hug The Wind  –  Scratched

15) The Faithful  –  Starts 9  –  Wins 3  –  Seconds 2  –  Thirds 0   –   Stakes $28,055

Is starting to build up a good record but in the main it has been away from the better three year olds.

He has beaten a few of these but not any of the main players so from the draw we think he is on mission impossible.

Not for us

Selections

We don't think there is that much if anything at all between Follow The Stars and Have Faith In Me except that Follow The Stars is the complete professional racehorse where as Have Faith In Me still has a few rough edges to smooth out.

So Follow The Stars just in front of Have Faith In Me and after that it is a bit of a lottery.

Outside of our top two selections, there is not a lot between several runners

For quinella and trifecta takers we would take Express Stride, Kept Under Wraps, Art Union, Itz Bettor To Win and Hughie Green

A couple to add into first fours would be Change Stride and Chachingchaching

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