Gil Winston's post-race analysis series

The serious handicapper needs information beyond what is available in the harness racing program. When you look at the racing program, you need to know what is relevant and what is not. Does the program accurately reflect what happened in the race?  In this series, we will be providing analysis not found anywhere else.

The most frequent unexposed excuse of which the handicapper is familiar is “blocked with pace(trot).” But there is so much more. The charts give you quarter times, but most races are won and lost in eighths and sixteenths.

Was the horse with the fastest last quarter also the horse that was the fastest in the last sixteenth? Did the horse alter course, or check, at different periods during the last quarter? In fact, was the horse compromised during one of the earlier quarters for a portion of a quarter. Ground lost in the around the first turn (an eighth of a mile on a half mile track, longer on bigger tracks) is too often ignored. It is not unusual for a horse from a bad post at the Meadowlands to be stuck three and four-wide for an eighth of a mile, while going nowhere, then being on the rail before the first quarter. The chart does not reflect that journey.

One of the best efforts of the great Niatross was during a race in which he finished 4^th at The Meadowlands. The first quarter time did not reflect how fast he left the gate before a speed break near the eighth pole, nor did it identify the incredible brush between the quarters. In this series we will identify race efforts where the race program is lacking. Values assigned will be opinions, based on years of successful wagering experiences, and values will receive a comment for the reader to review.

This is the way it works. No comment is assigned to horses whose performance is accurately portrayed in the program.  The names of the horses receiving plus, and minus scores will be listed and an explanation for the score will be included.

While this is seriously important information, betting on or against horses only because of these values would be a mistake. Horses move up and down against competition (note, I said competition which does not always mean racing class), the trainer of the horses rated may have caught fire or gone cold since the last effort, driver changes and the myriad other angles that go into wagering decisions. But this is the definitive value angle. This is your edge. How you use the information is your decision. I highly recommend saving these charts for future reference for cases where horse suffer multiple excuse lines after the races from these charts.

Expect to see charts from qualifying races where the tracks provide videos of them online. I consider qualifier charts even more valuable. Sadly, there are a lot fewer qualifiers than in the past, and online qualifiers for view are not available from most tracks. An explanation of why qualifiers are critical will be provided in a future article.

*** Update – The Meadowlands is closed for harness racing until 10/20. Freehold will race 3 days a week until The Meadowlands reopens. Even if you are not interested in wagering on Freehold, these charts will prove invaluable for opening week at The Meadowlands and watch out for these horses that ship elsewhere.

Freehold Raceway (9/21/23)

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             2 BYRDS THE WORD        1             Stuck behind pacesetter until too late

1             6 UNNREAL                       -1           Followed winner

2             2 ALWAYS RUTHLESS       -1           Walking the last sixteenth

4             4 STONE COLD SAVAGE   1             Shuffled out 3-wide the last 3/8

6             4 QUEEN SUN RYSER       1             Appeared to have pace while blocked in stretch

6             7 BELTARA                          1             Wide 1^st turn, then back to last, then wide last turn

9             4 ODDS ON SELENIUM   1             Grabbed when room in passing lane tightened

10           5 FRANKIE BOY                 -2           Gapping before breaks

10           7 OFFICER BLUE CHIP      1             Weaved in stretch, a little more than shown

Freehold Raceway (9/22/23)

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             6 PANTY LINE                    2             Strong hold through the stretch

1             8 COUNTESS MARA         1             Impacted the most by breaker, behind dead pace until stretch

2             7 EATAAMS TRAUMA       2             Passed up rail trip to move 4-wide on turn and closed well

3             3 TACTICAL LORI               2             Compromised by breaker, good close when clear

4             8 DREAM PILLAR              1             Bad steps in stretch cost her second place

5             4 ELOISE                             2             Strong hold through stretch

7             5 THE BOXER                     1             Easy second before break

9             8 RELAY ROLL                    1             Most pace of the also rans

10           3 CAPICOLA                       -1           Recommend caution if return to ½ mile track – or

10           3 CAPICOLA                       2             Should be stronger on bigger tracks

Freehold Raceway (9/23/23)

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

5             3 LINCOLN BOULEVARD  1             Wins the race if he could have gotten through

7             5 STEWS WATCHING        1             Stuck behind stopper until winner was long gone – gd in stretch

9             4 BIG BAD BILL                 1             Clear too late, then in lineup behind winner when clear

10           8 SLIP THE HUNDY N       2             Wide entire first turn, checked hard back to last, wide last turn

11           8 ALLINDOTIME                2             Blindswitch, recovered nicely

13           8 LA MAGIC                       1             3-wide to almost the quarter pole

* Positive and negative numbers reflect variances from what the program tells you and will produce winners for you. While these numbers are critical handicapping angles, they do not necessarily negate other factors. There are other considerations when handicapping future races in which each horse participates. E.g., class changes, layoffs, post position, driver and trainer changes, etc.

** In evaluating horses who raced on this track condition, pay more attention to other racing lines for “fast track” races. Sadly, most horses are inconsistent on off tracks, so you cannot trust repeat performances on subsequent bad tracks.      Naturally, if other races provide insufficient data, these are the races you must use to focus on future events.

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink