Gil Winston: Prior horses tagged plus Big M & Fhld analysis

The objective of this analysis is to identify harness racing horses via plus or minus scores that are not identifiable in the past performances. Horses whose races are accurately captured in the past performances are not captured here, regardless of how well or poorly they may have raced.

Consider all races without comment as WUSIWUG – an acronym for What U See (in past performances) Is What U Get. Some races may identify multiple horses that are scored, while other races are clearly defined in the past performances, and no horse is scored. These unscored horses all had clearance in the pivotal part of the stretch, and no uncharted exertion earlier.

Scores do not indicate must-bet or must-toss the next time they race as other handicapping factors come into play. But these scores give the bettor a huge edge in what is frequently the most important factor when making betting decisions and many scored horses have been coming in with generous payouts in their next races.

The highest $2 win payout was for VANDALISM who paid $188 for a $2 wager on 12-29 at The Meadowlands. He had been scored with “clear too late with some pace” in his previous start there. (HARNESSLINK.COM article published 12-29) That was the biggest price, but there have been many more long prices (including cold exactas, and even one cold trifecta when three scored horses ended up in the same race).

You cannot assume scored horses will race the following week. Here is the best way to profit from this analysis. On the day you are wagering on races, and see Freehold or Meadowlands in the past performances, click here. This will open up the list of all articles. For horses that show lines that pique your interest, find the article that analyzes the races for that day, then search for the horse. If the horse has a positive score, you know the horse is better than the pp line shows. Click on other weeks that the horse raced if the most recent race does not complete the story for you. This will give you access to all analysis.

Tracking shippers is not part of this analysis, but out-of-town winners will be identified on occasion.

This week’s winners that were identified in previous analyses

Oak Grove 4-1                   Race 1                  JD CAMDEN GB                 $ 3.42   Scored in last at M’lands. Notice there is no breakage at Kentucky tracks.

M’lands       4-5                  Race 9                  CORSINI A                          $43.60   Scored in last at Freehold. Finished off a $10,000+ pick-4, for those lucky enough to put it together. Pick-3 was $1,600+.

CORSINI A REPLAY 

M’lands      4-5                  Race 12                LISA LANE                           $ 3.80    Scored in last at M’lands.

M’lands      4-6                  Race 10                ADMIRAL HILL                   $ 3.80    Scored in qualifier

Freehold     4-6                 Race 6                  CAPTAIN FANCY                $ 2.20    Scored in last at M’lands

Freehold     4-6                 Race 7                  SHOEMAKER HANOVER  $ 4.20    Scored +2 in last Freehold race

Meadowlands Qualifiers 4-6      

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             3 MAMBACITA                   2             Clearly the best over two good trotters

MAMBACITA REPLAY  

2             5 TWIN B SEAMONSTER 1             Lineup behind winner

4             2 ARI FERRARI J                1             Strong hold

4             3 HILLEXOTIC                    1             Lineup behind winner

5             5 SEVEN REPS                    1             Had a lot more

6             4 CROWN MONARCH      2             Impacted by breaker, good finish

7             3 TROOPER L                     2             Lineup, hiding pace

TROOPER L REPLAY  

11           4 BELLUCCI                        1             Followed dull cover until very late, good when clear

Meadowlands 4-5

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

4            7 RACING MONEY            1             Shuffled out, pace when clear

5             2 BAILEY’S ROCK N          1             Probable winner if not for late interference

5             3 MARVALOUS ONE         1             Good recovery after interference break

5             4 HELLO ROCKY                1             Was on top when he broke.

6             6 WHAT SHOULD I GO     1             Was going to be second before break

9             6 ERA OF LOVE                 1             Blocked with pace

9             7 EILEEN’S WISH               1             Clear too late along pylons

10          8 CELIA B MONEY             1             Clear too late along pylons

12           7 DONTKARENIFIDO        1             Most pace last 1/16

13           7 ROLLINWITDAPONYZZZ 1          Very wide passed 1/8, 2^nd straight excuse  line

14           6 THE AMERICAN EAGLE 1            Shut off with trot along cones, weaved wide into traffic

Meadowlands 4-6

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             5 MARINER SEELSTER     1             Looped, then 3-wide most of quarter and pressed

2             3 PINEBUSHDRAGONROLL 1        Interference break while trying to thread between horses

4             4 WAY TO GO CAPTAIN   1             Blocked inside with pace

5             2 BRAEVIEW BONDI A     1             Blocked with pace

5             3 BATTLEFIELD                  2             3 moves before 5/8 pole

5             9 LITE N SWEET                1             Blocked with pace

6             2 BUDDY EARL                  1             Blocked some trot

6             8 CHAKE                             1             Weaved widest too late

7             2 TRENTE DEO                  1             Blocked with pace

7             6 DECISION DAY                1             Blocked with pace in back of field

9             1 DYNAMITE DYLAN        2             Shut off along pylons, would have been second

DYNAMITE DYLAN REPLAY  

10           2 ALL CLASS                       1             Blocked along pylons, had more

11           5 JK STANDING OVATION 1           Blocked

14           9 HEART OF ROCK            1             Clear too late

Freehold  4-5                           

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

3             2 BRICKYARD RALLY         1             Weakly driven in stretch, had more, possible lineup issue

BRICKYARD RALLY REPLAY

3             8 ARCHIBALD                    1             Interference by breaker caused 3-wide most of last half

4             1 EDDIE MUSH                  1             Driver lost control in stretch. Equipment? Would have raced better?

5             3 LAZARUS GIRL               1             Lost momentum from interference by breaker

5             6 SMOOTH DEBATE N     1             Hurt more than LAZARUS GIRL by breaker

5             8 QUEEN SUN RYSER       2             Hurt the most by breaker, good recovery while very wide

QUEEN SUN RYSER REPLAY  

6             7 WHAT’S THE WORD     1             Behind dull cover, most trot in stretch

Freehold  4-6                   

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

2             8 DARK HORSE                  1             Long brush before half, then 3-wide brush before 5/8

4             5 ALBERT A’ SCOOTIN      1             3-wide passed 1/8

5             2 AWOL HANOVER           1             Blindswitch, closed, buttoo much ground to make up once free

5             4 HAMMER CREEK           1             3-wide almost quarter, the looped

5             6 SS TYS AFLYIN                2             4-wide entire quarter, then surged to top

7             6 CARTIER ZETTE              2             Was 4-wide 1/8, then breaker pushed him wider.

10           5 SWORD OF THE SAINT 1            Blindswitch, never clear

10           7 VASARI N                        1             4-wide entire last quarter

10           8 HERE COMES RED         1             Never clear with pace

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink