Gil Winston: Big M and Freehold Raceway analysis

The objective of this analysis is to identify harness racing horses via plus or minus scores that are not identifiable in the past performances. Horses whose races are accurately captured in the past performances are not captured here, regardless of how well or poorly they may have raced.

Consider all races without comment as WUSIWUG – an acronym for What U See (in past performances) Is What U Get. Some races may identify multiple horses that are scored, while other races are clearly defined in the past performances, and no horse is scored. These unscored horses all had clearance in the pivotal part of the stretch, and no uncharted exertion earlier.

Scores do not indicate must-bet or must-toss the next time they race as other handicapping factors come into play. But these scores give the bettor a huge edge in what is frequently the most important factor when making betting decisions and many scored horses have been coming in with generous payouts in their next races.

The highest $2 win payout was for VANDALISM who paid $188 for a $2 wager on 12-29 at The Meadowlands. He had been scored with “clear too late with some pace” in his previous start there. (HARNESSLINK.COM article published 12-29) That was the biggest price, but there have been many more long prices (including cold exactas, and even one cold trifecta when three scored horses ended up in the same race).

You cannot assume scored horses will race the following week. Here is the best way to profit from this analysis. On the day you are wagering on races, and see Freehold or Meadowlands in the past performances, go to the HARNESSLINK.COM site and click on my name at the bottom of any of my articles.

This will open up the list of all articles. For horses that show lines that pique your interest, find the article that analyzes the races for that day, then search for the horse. If the horse has a positive score, you know the horse is better than the pp line shows. Click on other weeks that the horse raced if the most recent race does not complete the story for you. This will give you access to all analysis.

Tracking shippers is not part of this analysis, but out-of-town winners will be identified on occasion.

This week’s winners that were identified in previous analyses

Freehold 3-29    *Race 1                RACING FOR RICK            $ 6.80    Scored in last at Freehold

Freehold 3-29    *Race 1                BYRDS THE WORD           $36.40 to place. Get yer ice cold, heeyah. Both horses scored in last. Exacta paid $208. BYRDS THE WORD has had multiple scored races.

BYRDS THE WORD REPLAY

Freehold 3-29    Race 5                  ON THE WATERSEDGE     $ 8.80    Scored in last at Freehold

M’lands 3-29      Race 8                  WARRAWEE YANKEE        $ 3.80    Scored in last at M’lands

M’lands 3-29      Race 10                OUTSIDE THE FIRE           $ 4.20    Scored in last at M’lands

M’lands 3-30      *Race 4                ADAM CROCKER A           $29.20   Scored in last at M’lands

M’lands 3-30      *Race 4                WHATCHLOOKIN AT        $ 2.40 to place. Get yer ice cold, heeyah. Scored in qualifying race. Exacta paid $76.

WHATCHLOOKIN AT REPLAY

M’lands 3-30      Race 8                  LEXUS KODY                       $ 4.80 Scored +3 (highest score) and we provided video of his qualifier, then he broke on top, and was scored as probable winner in last. Regular driver, Gingras, back on this time. If anyone had the 99-1 CHAKE for second, the exacta paid $212, and despite the co-favorite finishing 3rd, the trifecta paid $1,000+ and the superfecta paid $300+ for a dime. Note: CHAKE was a Pocono shipper. This year, as with most years, Pocono shippers do well when they ship out during the colder months of the meet. However, when the summer comes, the reverse happens, and you should expect shippers from Pocono to not match their pp lines when they move to other tracks.

Meadowlands Qualifiers 3-30 

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             6 CASANOVA HALL           1             Accelerated when he got clearance.

4             2 UTE BLUE CHIP              -1           Repelled with all out attempt to get by

8             3 GIRLDAD                         1             Too far back before clear, some pace

8             7 LITERL LAD HANOVER  2             Too far back before clear, good pace

LITTRL LAD HANOVER QUALIFYING REPLAY

9             2 ADMIRAL HALL              1             Fast last 1/16

9             5 PLEASELETMEKNOW    1             Fast last 1/16

Meadowlands 3-29

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

4             6 SEE YOU FRIDAY            1             Most pace when clear widest.

6             4 MONEYMAKEHERSMILE 1         Clear too late, gained.

6             8 LETS RYDE GIRL             2             Clear too late with pace.

LET’S RYDE GIRL REPLAY

8             6 ROLLINGWITDAPONYZZ 1         Clear too late with pace

9             2 MILADY DENVER A       1             Bang wheels, stopped.

9             3 MISS ITALIA                    1             Bang wheels, stopped.

9             7 SHES SO SWEET             1             3-wide entire first quarter

9             8 LADYZAR                         1             Took the worst of interference.

9             9 DON’TRIP                       -1           Took the least of interference.

10           5 JENDEN STRIKE A          1             Most pace when clear

10           9 LISA LANE                       1             Behind dead cover, wide, closed well.

14           2 MAXIMUS                       1             Shuffled out, good pace when clear.

Meadowlands 3-30

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

2             5 INTEREST FREE A           1             Blocked behind winner. Had more.

4             9 HURRIKANE JONNYBOY 1          Hard 3-wide brush to first quarter

6             7 ABSOLUTE POWER       1             Most pace, too far back

7             10 BET A BUNDLE            1             Interfered with by breaker before 3q, came on.

8             8 KEG STAND                     1             No room in the back

9             9 LEXUS CODY                   2             One of the best trotters when right

LEXUS CODY REPLAY

10           6 BIG SKEWY N                 1             Hard and wide first quarter

14           7 DIVINE RIGHT                1             Shuffled out, best when clear.

Freehold  3-29  

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

6             5 HERS HUNGRY               1             Checked and taken out.

8             2 LIONHEAD                      1             Clear too late, some trot

8             7 BLUEBIRD JESSE            1             Behind dead cover, wide, closed well.

Freehold  3-30  

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             7 MAKE AMERICA GREAT -1         Followed winner.

2             4 WHATA TREASURE        1             Behind dull cover, most pace in the stretch

6             7 BOURBONS COURAGE 1             Weave with some pace in traffic

7             7 THREE IN HEAVEN A     1             Tight quarters, some pace in stretch

10           6 TOPVILLE SOMROCKET 1           Blocked with some pace.

13           7 RISKY BUDDY                 1             Wider than 3-wide the last quarter

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink