Australian Analyst – Saturday Harness Racing Best Bets 2nd May

Four Group 1 races will be run and won at Menangle on Saturday night, including the Queen Elizabeth II Mile and NSW Oaks.

Superstars Captains Mistress and Eye Keep Smiling contest the $200,000 Queen Elizabeth II Mile, although it is expected to be a one-sided race according to the market.

A stacked NSW Oaks carries $200,000 in prizemoney and we will preview that in-depth, while also looking towards trotting star Jilliby Ballerini in the $100,000 Macarthur Mile, and 3YO trotting fillies in the NSW Trotters Oaks.

Lots of exciting support races at Menangle and some intriguing contests at Melton. Here is our look at the weekend’s pacing and trotting action.

---

Saturday Harness Racing Best Bets May 2

Menangle

Race 3

HI MANAMEISJEFF NZ (10) is a Menangle mile specialist, and he’s won 16 of 20 races at the track. Driver Cam Hart will send the nine-year-old gelding forward with the lead most likely up for grabs. He has broken 1:50 mile rates in his previous two victories and looks hard to beat again.

PINSEEKER NZ (9) is racing well in Australia, winning his previous start over 2300m when running down CHASE A DREAM NZ (11) who got a big break on him at the top of the straight. It will be harder against Jeff but this horse is all class and is the main danger. CAPTAIN BELLASARIO (3) will search for the fence first and then hand over to more favoured rivals. At monster odds, I think he’s the play in the race and worth a throw at the stumps. He won an easier race three starts back and can carve out nice sectionals himself.

Smaller hopes for JILLIBY NITRO (7) and CHASE A DREAM NZ (11) although they will need a lot of luck and for the race to be run upside down.

Selections: 10-9-3-7

CAPTAIN BELLASARIO (3) each way

---

Race 4

JILLIBY AURA (5) is a last start Bendigo winner where she sat parked to defeat IJUSTCANTSEEIT (6). She is set to renew her rivalry with ADELAIDE RED (4) who won the Breeders Crown 2YO Trotting Fillies Final (2240m) in December, and ELLE PERFECTO (10) who was runner up in that event with JILLIBY AURA (5) in third place. Glen Craven has options from barrier four, but priority one will be trying to find the lead.

ELLE PERFECTO (10) is thriving since moving to NSW and she won in 1:59.1, 57.7 over course and distance last time out. She looks a huge threat as does ADELAIDE RED (4) who can run a quicker last quarter than most of this field. The improver looks to be ALDEBARAN ADA (1) from the inside barrier. IJUSTCANTSEEIT (6) is a blowout chance at odds.

Selections: 5-10-4-6

JILLIBY AURA (5) to win

---

Race 5

The Listed TAB Regional Championship is worth $150,000 and all eyes will be on Jason Grimson’s IMA BOXA (11) who had his winning streak of four ended as the $1.33 favourite by THALASSOPHOBIA (1). It was a disappointing run from IMA BOXA (11) who will be expected to be much sharper for this big race.

SEASIDER (2) has the best sectional times consistently in this field and Amanda Turnbull has the four-year-old gelding in terrific form leading into this. He defeated War Dan Buddy in the $100,000 Riverina Championships (2270m) despite having a flat tyre. That was a massive win, and he was eye-catching when third behind THALASSOPHOBIA (1) at his next start. With the good draw here, I think SEASIDER (2) is the horse to beat.

THALASSOPHOBIA (1) has obvious claims after that last start win, although barrier one could prove interesting.

Selections: 2-11-1-6

SEASIDER (2) to win

---

Race 6

ALWAYSBJOY NZ (4) is a Queensland filly who won four-straight Albion Park victories before trekking south for a heat of the Oaks. She was a brilliant third place from a bad barrier draw when finishing 4.9m behind WILLOWS GIRL (5) and RIPPLES NZ (10). From barrier three, Pete McMullen can use her gate speed to look for the fence. She has shown her ability to run well from a disadvantageous position and looks a great each-way bet in the race.

ARRHYTHMIA (9) continues to show her class, winning nine of 11 career starts. Cam Hart electing to drive her is a big lead and she will go close with her speed. ARK SEA (12) draws the car park, but her brilliance could still see her win, while WILLOWS GIRL (5) is the other key winning chance, but the field has so much depth that SENSES (3), RIPPLES NZ (10) and SPARKLING SEA (11) can also win.

Selections: 4-9-12-5

ALWAYSBJOY NZ (4) each way

---

Race 7

JILLIBY BALLERINI (4) should put forward another dominant display as she searches for the lead from barrier four. She is the $1.20 favourite for the race and rightly so. JILLIBY DREAMLOVER (3) looks a huge chance to run second behind her stablemate. ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (8) and THE PRIESTESS (9) are the other key place hopes in the race. Exotics appear to be the best way to play this race.

Selections: 4-3-8-9

Exacta: 4 / 3

Trifecta: 4 / 3,8 / 3,8,9

---

Race 8

CAPTAINS MISTRESS NZ (2) will have no trouble leading from barrier two and she has been kept up to the mark since her Miracle Mile run with a dominant 1:51.0 trial. Some of her victories prior to the Miracle Mile were unbelievable and there’s no reason to think she won’t handle this field with relative ease.

EYE KEEP SMILING (4) was a terrific winner of the Robin Dundee Stakes (1609m) as she worked hard to reel in TOKYO ROSE NZ (10) who stopped late. EYE KEEP SMILING (4) looks a great place chance in the race, especially if she can land some cover rather than trying to punch the breeze in slick sectionals. LUX AETERNA (3), STENO (7) and GUNNA RELOAD (9) look prominent place chances in the race.

Selections: 2-4-7-9

EYE KEEP SMILING (4) to place

---

Race 9

The Group 3 Pink Bonnett (1609m) has a dominant favourite with SHES A DELANEY (3) who is $1.45. She won a heat of the Gold Tiara two runs back before working too hard in the final, finishing eighth. She has the best form in the race and if she replicates her victory in 1:55.1 at Bathurst, she should prove hard to beat. Can’t tip her at the price on offer though.

TULHURST IRIS (5) is a roughie that could surprise here. She was no match for SHES A DELANEY (3) after having a better run than the winner, but from a place perspective, she may be able to finish second or third at odds.

It isn’t a strong field and first starters CANDY GIRL MARLEY (1) and DECOUPAGE (7) have trialled only fairly, although they could be open to some improvement.

Selections: 3-5-1-7

TULHURST IRIS (5) to place

---

Melton

Race 5

The Scotch Notch Memorial Trot (1720m) looks an intriguing race on paper and the price for REMUS PHOENIX (4) has swayed me in the race. Prepared by Chris Svanosio and to be driven by Taylor Youl, the gelding is racing consistently without winning, running nice sectionals. He is versatile so has options in the run. LOVEMETO NZ (7) has strong claims as does GOTFEELINGSYOUKNOW (1) – all of them are Svanosio runners.

OLLIVICI NZ (9) resumes and his best form would see him prove hard to beat. KEAYANG STUKA (6) and I AM WILMA (2) can also win. Very competitive trot which is why I have settled on REMUS PHOENIX (4).

Selections: 4-7-1-9

REMUS PHOENIX (4) to win

---

Race 7

It should be time for WAR DAN BUDDY (4) to use his gate speed to lead and in the small field of six runners, he should dictate terms with Ryan Sanderson picking up the drive. Three minor placings are beside his name from recent runs and conditions suit better this time around. He is rarely far away if beaten, so he should give a huge sight in the Listed City of Melton Plate (2240m).

FIGHTER COMMAND (5) and BAY OF BISCAY (6) are quality horses that are capable of winning despite the initial barrier draw disadvantage. Next best is HES FROM HEAVEN NZ (3) who is trialling well at Shepparton. Mark Pitt is driving BAY OF BISCAY (6) instead though.

Selections: 4-6-5-3

WAR DAN BUDDY (4) to win

---

 

For complete Saturday night harness racing fields, click here.

by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink