Australian Analyst – Saturday Harness Racing Best Bets 25th April
Harness racing best bets and tips for Saturday.
The Robin Dundee Stakes and NSW Oaks heats are the headline act for our Saturday harness racing best bets.
Please note that Races 5-8 at Menangle were first published in HarnessLink’s The Insider newsletter. From early May, these will be exclusive to The Insider. Sign up for free to view exclusive news, race previews and analysis.
It is all about the girls on Saturday night as winning the Robin Dundee Stakes will grant automatic entry into the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes next week. There will also be everything to race for in the heats of the NSW Oaks which is stacked with talent this year.
Jilliby Ballerini headlines the Group 1 Sumthingaboutmaori Trot at Melton as she is a short-priced favourite to take out the race.
We will also look at Globe Derby’s 2YO Kindergarten Series Final and the Adelaide Pacing Cup.
Saturday Harness Racing Best Bets April 25
Menangle
Race 5
ARRIVE (8) is racing in excellent form for Chantal Turpin and Pete McMullen, winning her past three starts. She is showing a lot of versatility, winning races from outside the leader, as well as sitting back and making one run. In a race full of depth here, her versatile racing pattern makes her appealing. Three starts back she ran home in 53.4 seconds and constantly breaks 55 seconds for her final 800m.
TOKYO ROSE NZ (7) will be trying to force her way to the lead, as she can run 1:49 mile rates around Menangle. She has beaten Ripples and EYE KEEP SMILING (10) at her past two starts. EYE KEEP SMILING (10) has been the benchmark mare in New South Wales for a couple of seasons and despite the horror draw, she is good enough to win if things pan out. COOL AND CLASSY (3) and POST PAINTER NZ (4) are racing well at Albion Park and they have each-way claims, while BEACH DIAMOND (9) is the intriguing runner – she is capable of running a sizzling quarter of 25.4 at Melton.
Selections: 8-7-10-9
ARRIVE (8) to win
Note: Arrive has since been scratched from the race. Replace with TOKYO ROSE (7) as top selection.
Race 6
A difficult NSW Oaks heat to decipher with Chantal Turpin’s duo STRIPES (3) and ALWAYSBJOY NZ (10) smashing the clock at Albion Park. The latter is very quick off the arm and Pete McMullen may be tempted to try and blast over, but risks being wide as WILLOWS GIRL (5) and RIPPLES NZ (6) have drawn underneath.
With not a great deal of confidence, I will throw STRIPES (3) on top as she has won her last three starts. McMullen will drive the stablemate but the second placing from STRIPES (3) against ALWAYSBJOY NZ (10) was impressive as she was parked without cover in 1:52.1 and finished just 1.6m from her stablemate. She gets a good draw here, Will Rixon picks up the drive and she seems to be getting better with racing – she won by a huge margin two starts ago in 1:52.0.
WILLOWS GIRL (5) has won her last three, including the Group 2 Gold Bracelet Final (1730m) over RIPPLES NZ (6) and both are good enough to win the heat. It would be an upset to see one of the top four not winning here.
Selections: 3-5-6-10
STRIPES (3) to win
Race 7
HAVTIMETODREAM NZ (5) was second behind Sparkling Sea in the Listed JL Raith Memorial (1609m) at Menangle on March 14. She then went back to the trials at Albion Park, obliterating the clock in 1:49.5 to win by 20m over FFA pacer Speak The Truth. He couldn’t keep up with the filly and it could be an ominous warning for rivals here. If Pete McMullen can get the filly to run anything like that trial here, she should be winning the second heat.
ARK SEA (11) has won five of her seven starts, technically first past the post on six occasions (one disqualification), and she will need to be her brilliant best to win from the car park draw. She has the best race sectionals on paper and is the obvious threat in the race. RAVISHING RUBY NZ (4) is the unknown horse at this level after mostly racing in Tasmania where she was impressive for Emma Stewart.
Selections: 5-11-4-2
HAVTIMETODREAM NZ (5) to win
Race 8
ARRHYTHMIA (10) makes the trip from Victoria for Emma Stewart and she has won eight of her 10 starts. Last season she won the Group 2 Vicbred Super Series 2YO Fillies Final (2240m) and Group 2 Breeders Crown 2YO Fillies Final (2240m). Cam Hart will send her forward searching for the front from either SENSES (2) and FAKE FRIENDS (6). If she finds the lead, she is going to be extremely hard to beat.
SENSES (2) could be behind the leader or three back on the pegs and she should run a strong race, although she is more of a place hope if the favourite finds the top. FAKE FRIENDS (6) galloped out in the Golden Easter Egg (1609m). Prior to that she won in 1:51.9.
Selections: 10-2-6-8
ARRHYTHMIA (10) to win
Melton
Race 5
Lots of early speed here with JILLIBY DREAMLOVER (1), PINNIE (2) and ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (3). Whoever ends up holding the early lead will be more than happy relinquishing it to star trotter JILLIBY BALLERINI (6) once she comes knocking. A winner of 16 races from 36 starts, JILLIBY BALLERINI (6) will have regular driver Glen Craven in the sulky and as long as her manners are good, she should prove too good.
The map is completely against TRACY THE JET (7) but her sectional times are outstanding, constantly running home in 55.8 seconds. James Herbertson will either sit back and come with one run or put the four-year-old mare into the race. She breezed to win five starts back in the Need For Speed Princess (1720m).
JILLIBY DREAMLOVER (1) and ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (3) are the other key chances in the race. They are most likely place chances unless the favourite puts in an indiscretion.
Selections: 6-7-1-3
TRACY THE JET (7) each way
Globe Derby
Race 3
BAYSTYLE (9) is prepared by Geoff Webster and will be driven by Danielle Hill tonight as the two-year-old gelding seeks a third-straight win in the 2YO Kindergarten Series Final (1800m). He was an excellent winner at Melton in 1:56.9 two starts ago before winning at Mount Gambier as a short-priced favourite. He starts in the moving line on the back row and can challenge the favourite in the race.
SPIRIT OF KEZZA (8) has drawn the inside of the back row as he looks to remain unbeaten for Emma Stewart. Wayne Hill continues to drive the filly, and she will likely be driven like the best horse in the race. I just can’t suggest the $1.45 straight out so prefer to side with Webster’s gelding.
Smaller hopes to SOUTH AUSSIE STAR (1), REMARLI (3) and ITS A WASH (5).
Selections: 9-8-1-3
BAYSTYLE (9) to win
Trifecta: 8,9 / 1,8,9 / 1,3,5,8,9
Race 4
The Adelaide Pacing Cup (2230m) looks a great race for the Matthew Horsnell-trained DHAULAGIRI NZ (5) who obliterated rivals by 16.4m in the Listed Port Pirie Pacing Cup (2530m). A lot of the same rivals appear here and there is no reason to think why the nine-year-old gelding won’t produce another big run. His most recent Globe Derby appearance was four runs back when breezing to win by 8m in 1:57.6, 56.2.
ARTILLERY (10) chased home DHAULAGIRI NZ (5) and has the barrier disadvantage once again. HEZA PUNK ROCKER NZ (8) must be respected and LOCHINVAR MAGIC (1) will enjoy a pegs run.
Selections: 5-10-8-1
DHAULAGIRI NZ (5) to win
Albion Park
Race 2
DASHING (2) will cross to the lead as he seeks a fourth-straight victory for trainer Shawn Grimsey. Queensland’s star driver Nathan Dawson will continue to drive the five-year-old gelding that has won four of his six starts at Albion Park. The latest was a 1:51.5 triumph over the 1660m. He also rated 1:52.8 when winning over the 2138m to defeat ATTACHMENT (5). He clearly goes on top here.
TIMS A TROOPER (3) is the sectional star of the race but he is going to be forced to work or give a head start to the favourite which will make it tougher. HECTOR NZ (1) and JIMARTEE (8) will enjoy soft pegs runs.
Selections: 2-3-1-8
DASHING (2) to win
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by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink
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