Australian Analyst – Harness Racing Best Bets 9th-10th October

A busy weekend with heats of the Victoria Derby and Victoria Oaks, along with the Need For Speed finals at Melton. Read on for our harness racing best bets for the weekend’s action.

Melton has an excellent card of racing that starts with the Smoken Up Sprint. It also boasts the Group 1 Need For Speed Prince and Princess Finals, heats of the Victoria Derby and Victoria Oaks, plus the VL Dullard Trotters Cup.

Gloucester Park has a titanic clash between WA Derby winner Runkle Crunch and Cyclone Jordy in the 4YO Championship.

Port Pirie sees The Radiant heats and then final run later in the night – we won’t cover this as the final field will not be known until both heats are run on Saturday night.

Menangle’s Frith Stakes looks a terrific clash of mares, while the Yabby Dam Farms Finals will be run.

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Gloucester Park (Friday, October 9)

Race 3

COPY CAT QUEEN (7) is probably the best mare in the race as she races second-up from a spell for trainer Aiden De Campo. The wide draw hurts, but she is fast and this is a race where the leaders could be shaky late. Three runs ago she won the Breeders Stakes at the track and she can run well at nice odds here.

FAKENIT (6) could be driven tough here which is what suits her best. Put the pen through her last run because she was racing well prior to that. If she goes back at the start, I don’t like her chances though. ISEEUBABY (2) won in fast time two runs back, beating a few of her rivals here. The middle distance doesn’t suit as much as the sprint, but she can still win if leading and getting away with a cheap sectional. DELIGHTFUL PEG NZ (10) needs luck and can fly late if the gaps open up.

Selections: 7-6-2-10

COPY CAT QUEEN (7) each way

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Race 5

RUNKLE CRUNCH NZ (2) captured the Group 1 WA Derby last year and has raced well since that big victory. This prep, he has only run once for a third placing behind Cyclone Jordy at Pinjarra in the 4YO Chandon Classic. It was a terrific run from back in the field and Aiden De Campo will be looking to lead in the 4YO Championship. He looks the hardest to beat in the race.

CYCLONE JORDY NZ (5) has freakish quality about him, winning 14 races from 16 starts. He was also first up in the Pinjarra race when drawing away to win by 5.7m in fast time. He may have to do the work here, but he could still prove too good. BELLY UP (1) gets the soft trip and split the leading pair at Pinjarra when second. He is the knockout hope if there’s too much pressure. LINCOLN LOU NZ (11) looks the best roughie, although more so as a place hope if things go his way.

Selections: 2-5-1-11

RUNKLE CRUNCH NZ (2) to win

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Melton (Saturday, October 10)

Race 1

FIGHTER COMMAND (2) has the best form in the race and the only position I wouldn’t want to see the gelding is in the breeze. If he leads, trails Our Sunset Delight or Smoken Ace, or races in the moving line with cover, he should be too fast for rivals in the home straight.

OUR SUNSET DELIGHT (3) brings NSW form into the race and this is a class rise. He has won his past two, including a 1:53.9 win over 2300m. He has paced 1:49 on multiple occasions so the sprint distance will suit. SMOKEN ACE NZ (4) is racing well and caused a big upset two runs back beating Fighter Command. SIR JIMMY (6) and BULLETPROOF BOY (10) look next best.

Selections: 2-3-4-6

FIGHTER COMMAND (2) to win

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Race 2

ENJOY LIFE (9) is one of four Emma Stewart-trained runners in the race and Mark Pitt sticks with the colt. He won the Group 1 Vicbred Super Series Final over Cardigan Dan and given this is a heat, there is a chance that he can follow Cardigan Dan through at the start and take up the running over the longer 2760m journey. He is versatile and can win this race from a number of positions.

CARDIGAN DAN (2) looks the early leader and Cam Hart will have options from there. He led in the Vicbred Super Series and was run down by Enjoy Life. He still looks a threat here. SOHO CHARMER (6) draws a tricky gate, although he did breeze to win a heat of the Vicbred. He still ran well enough in the semis despite galloping early. It would be a surprise to see any other horse win, except for the unknown former New Zealand gelding KOTARE RIMU NZ (10).

Selections: 9-2-6-10

ENJOY LIFE (9) to win

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Race 3

BROOKLYN DAN (1) gets the plumb draw and the colt was a Queensland Derby Qualifier winner three runs back at Albion Park. He finished fifth in the Queensland Derby before contesting the Victorian Sires Classic, running second to Soho Trump. Whether leading or trailing in this heat, he looks hardest to beat.

LUVTOBEUPTOME (9) has always had a lot of speed for the combination of trainer Courtney Slater and driver Josh Duggan. The colt won the Queensland Derby Consolation and the Mildura Guineas. This is much harder, but if he gets the right run, he could surprise at big odds. SOHO TRUMP (2) is the other main winning chance in the race, while LE CARDINAL (3) can run incredible sectionals – he is good enough to run into the money.

Selections: 1-9-2-3

BROOKLYN DAN (1) to win & LUVTOBEUPTOME (9) each way

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Race 4

PALLADIUM NZ (1) and NYMBAL NZ (5) are NSW visitors that look set to fight out the third heat. It is hard to split the pair despite Nymbal coming from four back on the fence to run down Palladium who led in the Carousel Final at Menangle. It looks a good Quinella option as both could be leading and trailing.

SOHO PIASTRI (8) and DYNAMITEDAN (9) should both run well as they look to qualify for the final.

Selections: 1-5-8-9

Quinella: 1 & 5

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Race 6

MISTER DEVEREAUX (1) has been racing well without winning and it would be a great effort if Emmett Brosnan could get the three-year-old gelding to win the Group 1 Need For Speed Prince Final. He was doing his best work late in the heat when finishing third, beaten just 1.3m by Munny The Munster after racing three back on the pegs. He should get a nice run from the inside gate.

KYVALLEY RAY NZ (5) boasts strong New Zealand form and could simply be too good for rivals. The colt galloped in the heat so I cannot jump in as race favourite due to manners, but lots of respect. UNCLAD (8) gets a soft, trailing draw and can run well. REVERAND BOB (2), THE PREACHER (4) and MUNNY THE MUNSTER (7) can all win too.

Selections: 1-5-8-2

MISTER DEVEREAUX (1) each way

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Race 7

HALLEBESOFINE (7) looks hardest to beat, but the odds-on quote and a wide draw are a cause for concern. She will press forward from the gate trying to find the lead or sit parked. She has been beaten twice as favourite recently.

HARPERSEVEN (5) is a consistent filly that has been placed in three of the last four. I am not entirely sure where she will map in this, but she has the ability to threaten on an each-way basis with champion driver Chris Alford. JILLIBY AURA (2), ALDEBARAN ADA (4) and MAJESTIC YANKEE (8) look capable of winning if the race is run to suit.

Selections: 7-5-8-2

HARPERSEVEN (5) each way

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Races 8 and 9

The Victoria Oaks heats look to have limited winning chances in them. In the first heat, WILLOWS GIRL (2) and RIPPLES NZ (7) look the key pair. I lean towards Willows Girl from barrier two, but it won’t be a surprise if they opt to hand up over the longer journey.

In the second heat, I like the chances of BETTOR BEACH (2) to beat THE QUEENS GAMBIT NZ (8) in that order. So playing an exacta looks a great option.

Exacta: 2 / 8 (BETTOR BEACH to beat THE QUEENS GAMBIT NZ)

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Menangle (Saturday, October 10)

Race 5

WICKED CONFESSION (3) is a Victorian mare that has been placed at her past three starts, including the Group 1 Vicbred Super Series Final won by The Art Of Success. With her gate speed, she should be able to find the fence and either try to lead or take a trail. This is a very competitive race, but I expect the Victorian to go close.

LUX AETERNA (8) has won 24 races in her career from 58 starts, with 13 of them coming at Menangle. She is speedy and should run well again. GOLLY GEE FELLAS (6) is the stablemate and she won well two starts ago. GUNNA RELOAD (7) resumes after a nice trial and IDEAL MOTH (1) joins Jason Grimson, so she could surprise here.

Selections: 3-8-1-6

WICKED CONFESSION (3) to win

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Races 6 and 7

I’ll keep this short as I am not keen on betting into these races. In the Yabby Dam Farms 2YO Colts and Geldings Final, unbeaten trotter VERBICI (1) can make it eight wins. In the 2YO Fillies division, debutant JILLIBY CONNECTION (6) looks hardest to beat but stablemate KEAYANG ZABRINA (1) who is also on debut could win. The best roughie is ARETE VIRTUE (7).

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by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink