Australian Analyst – Harness Racing Best Bets 4th-5th September
Harness racing best bets and tips for Friday and Saturday.
Gloucester Park hosts W Night with almost $1 million in prize money up for grabs. The Vicbred Super Series at Melton ramps up, while Menangle has star-studded horses competing. Read on for our harness racing best bets for the weekend.
Two Group 1 and four Group 2 features headline Friday night’s W night with Westbred Finals for 2YO, 3YO and 4YO horses.
Jason Grimson’s Captains Knock faces resuming stablemate Rakero Rocket at Menangle. All eyes will be on star 3YO Loucasso, pre-post favourite for The Eureka, when he meets his own age group in a race that he should dominate. Eye Keep Smiling will be hard to beat in the Listed Ranji Bill Stakes on the same program.
Gloucester Park (Friday, September 4)
Race 3
SEBASTIAN JAMES (10) has each-way claims regardless of how the race is run with either Major Disco or Lazi Dais the likely leader. From the trailing draw, Trent Wheeler will be hoping there is some pressure on and if the gaps open up, he can be running home strongly.
CAPTAIN STIRLING (11) is the stablemate to Sebastian James and looks to have the better chance of victory, although his price looks short enough now in a very competitive race. MAJOR DISCO (1) should run well from the draw. LAZI DAIS (2) can mix his form – his best is better than any horse in this race. BELLY UP (7) needs luck first-up but has the strongest closing speed.
Selections: 10-11-1-7
SEBASTIAN JAMES (10) each way
Race 4
EL MYSTRO (4) was the most impressive heat winner, sitting back before obliterating them in the home straight at Pinjarra, running home in 54.7 seconds. He is third-up into the Group 2 final and he looks to get a favourable map, potentially racing 1 out 1 back behind Ideal Beach who may look to breeze again.
WHEELSOFORTUNE (1) looks the leader in the race and he normally relishes that role. He ran a nice third in his heat and should give them something to catch. IDEAL BEACH (6) may have to do the work, which is how he won his heat. He won this race 12 months ago and Justin Prentice has a knack for winning multiple features with his young horses. HE IS TALKING (3) could bob up without surprising, while BETTOR BEHAVE (10) trails his stablemate Wheelsofortune which gives knockout claims.
Selections: 4-1-6-10
EL MYSTRO (4) to win
Race 6
ILIKEITLIKETHAT (11) has a nice trailing draw, following out Seaside Serenade, which should enable Deni Roberts to look for some cover in the race. She was a huge run in defeat behind Im Catastrophic in her heat, sustaining a three-wide run without cover and still sprinting home in around 55 seconds’ flat. If she can make a three-wide run at them in the final 400m, she could be dangerous.
SEASIDE SERENADE (2) looks the logical leader in the race and she won comfortably in her heat, dashing home in 27.5 seconds. She looks a bit short at $2 which is why I’ve settled on the Bond filly instead. NEVELE ARMA (3) captured the Group 1 Diamond Classic Final two runs back and won her heat last week. Blowout hopes to SOME DANCER (1), POCKET OF DREAMS (7), IM CATASTROPHIC (8) and SCANDALEYES (10).
Selections: 11-2-3-1
ILIKEITLIKETHAT (11) to win
Race 7
IGNITE THE FURNACE (1) will try to deliver trainer Sarah Wall with a maiden Group 1 victory and the gelding has impressed in four career runs. He ran third in the Group 1 Pearl Classic Final won by Hez The Boss, and it was an enormous run in defeat. His heat victory was stylish and he looks hardest to beat in a race that looks to have limited winning chances on paper.
HEZ THE BOSS (4) has been the benchmark of the colts and geldings’ division, winning seven races from eight starts, including the APG WA Sales Classic Final and Pearl Classic. He looks a huge threat once again. IDEAL WHISPER (7) looks the other winning chance but the barrier draw has not been kind. He either needs to work forward to find the breeze or go back and come with one run. TERBIUM (10), ROCK THE TOUR (2) and JETPACK (11) look to have place claims.
Selections: 1-4-10-7
IGNITE THE FURNACE (1) to win
Menangle (Saturday, September 5)
Race 3
HE SAID SHE SAID (6) brings recent Tamworth form to Menangle, winning a heat of the Waratah in 1:56.3. One concern is that he has raced 14 times at this track without winning, but the last time was in 2022. He has Jett Turnbull driving which is a positive as the pair combined in the Tamworth victory. He does have gate speed and it may be used here to find a prominent position. At close to double figures, he looks a good each-way play.
PENURIOUS (3) won at Newcastle last start and looks to be a strong contender in the Waratah Final. It looks a competitive race with plenty of chances. MAYWYNS MIGHTY MAC (9) is racing well and ROCKNROLL ROCKET (1) and MISTER BRILLANTE (2) must be respected from good draws.
Selections: 6-3-9-1
HE SAID SHE SAID (6) each way
Race 5
CAPTAINS KNOCK (10) has gone to another level recently, winning a hat-trick of races, including 1:48.7 and 1:49.4 demolition results at Albion Park and Menangle respectively. He completely dominated over 2300m last start and with fitness on his side, looks extremely hard to beat in the FFA.
RAKERO ROCKET NZ (11) returns and he is a speedy horse that thrives over the mile. Back in January he won in 1:47.3, but he may need the hit-out despite a 1:50.0 trial victory – I say that because Captains Knock is fully fit and firing. It would be a huge shock to see any other horse winning. Quite a few of them could be placed.
Selections: 10-11-4-8
Exacta: 10 / 11
Race 6
EYE KEEP SMILING (2) looks to have the Listed Ranji Bill Stakes at her mercy for trainer-driver Luke McCarthy. She won the Group 1 The Golden Girl at Albion Park two runs back, defeating Lux Aeterna. She creeps closer to the $1 million in prize money and this wonderful mare deserves to achieve that feat soon.
LUX AETERNA (6) looks the most likely danger if there is to be a minor upset. Rickie Alchin’s mare was dominant two runs back winning the Listed Norms Daughter Stakes. GOLLY GEE FELLAS (4) looks next best.
Selections: 2-6-4-7
LUX AETERNA (6) to place
Exacta: 2 / 4,6
Race 7
LOUCASSO (7) returns for the first time since crushing rivals by 24m in the Breeders Crown Final. The winner of seven races from nine starts has changed trainers from Emma Stewart to Seaton Grima. He cruised around Newcastle in 1:52.5, flying home in 27.1 and 26.6. He should beat this field for fun with his credentials as he embarks on a campaign targeting The Eureka.
ALERT BAY (3) looks a huge chance to run second, although ONE MORE REASON (1) may try to spoil the party for the silver medal. He showed immediate improvement in his first run for trainer Jason Grimson.
Selections: 7-3-1-6
Trifecta: 7 / 1,3 / 1,3,6
Melton (Saturday, September 5)
Race 1
SOHO CHARMER (2) worked around to sit parked in a heat at Kilmore and narrowly held off Neptunite. It was a gutsy win in 1:56.0 for the 2180m and he looms as a big contender. He can fly the gate when asked but not entirely sure if Michael Stanley takes that approach or not. If he could find the front or some 1 out 1 back cover, he will be dangerous. The breeze position would probably be too tough against this field though.
ENJOY LIFE (6) is unbeaten in eight starts and this looks the colt’s biggest test to date. His stablemate MOST EXCITING (1) has the draw which gives Kerryn Manning options. LUVTOBEUPTOME (8) will love the trailing draw and has each-way prospects.
Selections: 2-6-1-8
SOHO CHARMER (2) to win
Race 6
SOHO BELLAGIO (4) scored in 1:53.1 at Menangle on debut before tackling the heats where Michael Stanley drove him ice cold to qualify for the Vicbred Super Series semi-final. He stuck to the task behind Some High and gets a chance to be driven the complete opposite this time around. Stanley should search for the front and if he gets a breather, he should be too slick late.
LAKE COMO (10), AUSTON (9) and SMACK BANG BART (7) are the other winning hopes in this semi-final. The draw and likely speed map are against them, but they can win if the favourite underperforms.
Selections: 4-9-10-7
SOHO BELLAGIO (4) to win
For complete harness racing fields, click here.
by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink
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