Australian Analyst – Harness Racing Best Bets 30th October-1st November
Harness racing best bets and tips for the weekend.
The WA Derby kickstarts a big weekend of harness racing that leads into NSW Breeders Challenge Night at Menangle. Here are our harness racing best bets for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Perth’s top 3YO pacers compete in the Group 1 WA Derby at Gloucester Park on Friday night, while Minstrel and Magnificent Storm return in the FFA.
On Saturday night, the NSW Breeders Challenge Finals will be run, featuring the likes of Loucasso, Yottie, Double Lou, Ark Sea, Stripes, Comeandsee, Birdsong and Don Hunter in their respective age groups.
Maryborough will host its annual all-trotting meeting, with 10 races scheduled on Sunday, including Group 1 events such as the Redwood Classic and Victoria Trotters Derby.
Gloucester Park (Friday, October 30)
Race 4
MAGNIFICENT STORM NZ (8) is very quick off the gate, but it’s hard to judge if Aiden De Campo will be firing him out first-up from a spell over the 2536m. If he does, and he finds the front, then the Fremantle Cup winner will be hardest to beat. He finished his last preparation with a perfect three-from-three against much easier opposition.
MINSTREL NZ (4) is already a $2.1 million earner that captured the WA Pacing Cup four runs back by sitting outside Magnificent Storm. He looks a big short at $1.65 so that’s why I am leaning towards Magnificent Storm. WE WALK BY FAITH (10) and GOLDEN LODE NZ (11) are stablemates to Minstrel and both have each-way claims in the race. WAVERIDER (1) is also resuming, although place chances look best for him first-up.
Selections: 8-4-10-1
MAGNIFICENT STORM NZ (8) to win
Race 5
HAVTIMEFORMIKI NZ (7) is one of five Greg and Skye Bond runners in the WA Derby and he was excellent in defeat in the Western Gateway. Drawing outside Im Stealthy isn’t ideal but this gelding is tough and he should still give a big sight regardless of how the race is run. The longer distance seems to suit him too, so he should go close to winning the Group 1 feature.
IM STEALTHY NZ (5) has won nine races from 12 starts, including his past four starts. Gary Hall Snr has produced six Derby winners, including Chicago Bull, King Of Swing and Alta Christiano. If he can find the front, then it’s probably race over. If he is forced to work in the moving line, it is race on and this gelding will still run a huge race. PROPOSITION JOE NZ (12), AMERICAN MACHINE (1) and SOHO TRUMP (10) all have each-way claims in the race. KOTARE RIMU NZ (2) is the unknown at this level, while D MAC NZ (3) can be hit and miss at the moment.
Selections: 7-5-12-1
HAVTIMEFORMIKI NZ (7) to win
Menangle (Saturday, October 31)
Race 6
LOUCASSO (10) is the best horse in the race and is the current favourite for The Eureka. He runs unbelievable time for a three-year-old colt with a record 1:47.6 mile rate last start in the semi-final. Seaton Grima will just keep going forward until he finds the top. He is $1.30 and I am happy to take him on with another horse that has his fair share of talent.
YOTTIE (5) will be handlebars down early to find the fence and trainer-driver Bernie Hewitt will almost certainly take a trial behind Loucasso. At $5, it is conceivable that he could run down the wonder colt. A good strategy is to play the exotics with Loucasso and Yottie first and second, while throwing a few in for third. Outside of that, it would be a shock to see any other horse win. Place claims to NOCTURNAL (6), ALERT BAY (9) and FRIZZA (12).
Selections: 10-5-6-9
YOTTIE (5) to win
Quinella: 5 & 10
Trifecta: 5,10 / 5,10 / 6,9,12
Race 7
COMEANDSEE (3) looks the winner at short odds ahead of BIRDSONG (10) due to the barrier draws. Reverse the draws and you would likely reverse the result here. The exotics aren’t likely to pay much, so I would prefer to just sit back and enjoy these two-year-old fillies.
Selections: 3-10-7-1
Races 5 & 8 – Multi
ARK SEA (6) looks to have one danger standing in her way and that is STRIPES (7). With the barrier draw advantage, Ark Sea should find the lead and she paced 1:49.7 last start. A repeat effort should see her win Race 5.
DON HUNTER (6) won in 1:50.8 last start and he looks incredibly hard to beat here. I don’t see why he can’t find the top and take plenty of catching. Looks a good horse to combine with Ark Sea in a multi as Race 8 looks to be at his mercy.
Race 5 ARK SEA (6) & Race 8 DON HUNTER (6) to win in a multi
Melton (Saturday, October 31)
Race 5
BULLETPROOF BOY (8) captured the Smoken Up Sprint two starts ago in 1:50.7, defeating Our Sunset Delight and Fighter Command. He then finished fifth in the Victoria Cup and should appreciate the drop back to a regular FFA event. At this stage of his career, the 11-year-old veteran prefers having horses to run down than leading, so being the only runner on the back row should allow James Herbertson to get off the fence and make one run late.
CATCH A WAVE (7) showed some of his best, winning two runs back over the 1720m when running on from the tail of the field. He can be hit and miss, especially if used up early, so it will be interesting to see if he goes back early or tries to cross and lead. SIR JIMMY (3) should be around the mark and it won’t be a surprise if he wins, but he doesn’t win often at the moment. JILLIBY NITRO (6) was a shock winner of the Geelong Pacing Cup at $26. He then failed to beat a runner home in the Victoria Cup but can bounce back to form here – each-way claims for the nine-year-old.
Selections: 8-7-3-6
BULLETPROOF BOY (8) to win
Hobart (Saturday, October 31)
Race 6
DANGER BEWARE (10) won well on debut for trainer Christopher Howlett, winning her heat by 1.6m from Vinjetta. Her closing sectionals were excellent and suggest she is going to be hard to hold out late in the Woodlands Stud Evicus Final. As long as she doesn’t get too far back, she should have a strong finishing burst.
VINJETTA (2) is still a maiden after eight starts, placed on five occasions. She is consistent and if she gets a good run, she is good enough to win the $75,000 feature race at double figures. KOOKY (5) has been smashed in the early betting and is a stablemate to Danger Beware. She looks far too short now. ELEANOR STREET (1) needs to behave and if she does, then she can win this race too.
Selections: 10-2-5-1
DANGER BEWARE (10) to win & VINJETTA (2) to win
Race 7
POGACAR (4) has won two from four and was third in the heat behind Bettor Than Ready. Charlie Castles will try to make the most of barrier three. Whether he can find the top or settles handy, he should run a big race. It is an open Woodlands Stud Dandy Patch Final where half a dozen runners could salute the judge.
BETTOR THAN READY (8) will be hoping not to be buried back on the pegs because he won his heat well. This will be trickier, but he has won four straight races. OUR ROB ROY (2) or LOTSEVEN (13) are the best roughies in the race – I wish the latter had barrier one. MYSTERY MAIL (5) is racing well and has claims too, as well as Victorian visitor FARROH JOE (11).
Selections: 4-8-13-5
POGACAR (4) to win
Maryborough (Sunday, November 1)
Race 6
VERBICI (6) is a star two-year-old trotter, winning all eight career runs. This is his first standing start event, although he trialled nicely from the stand. Race day can be something different and I couldn’t back him at $1.40 under these conditions.
REGAL GALA (1) made a rare mistake last time when galloping under pressure. He was headed prior to his breaking stride rounding the bend to enter the home straight. He did win his previous start and can bounce back. MAJARO GIRL (8) looks a good roughie to back in the race as she ran a nice last start behind Delighted in the Graeme Lang Memorial. Her manners can be hit and miss, so there is certainly risk involved, but at $26 and $4, she is worth a small play. PHOENIX REX (5) was brilliant last start, winning by 11.7m in the Gavin Lang Memorial.
Selections: 6-1-8-5
MAJARO GIRL (8) each way
Race 8
HOWDY MATE (7) is the most experienced trotter in the race with 27 starts producing nine wins and eight minor placings. He will be going forward searching for the front and I think he can find that position. That makes him the horse to beat in the Victoria Trotters Derby.
IJUSTCANTSEEIT (3) captured the Victoria Trotters Oaks and will try to make it an Oaks-Derby double at huge odds. The market is giving her no respect for that Oaks victory and I think she is worth a small play at massive odds. Her best chance would be to find the pegs first and hand up. MUNNY THE MUNSTER (5) is a leading contender here and could be another runner trying to find the early lead. THE PREACHER (12) has plenty of talent and each-way claims from the poor draw. Next best is MISTER DEVEREAUX (11) and UNCLAD (13).
Selections: 7-3-5-12
HOWDY MATE (7) to win & IJUSTCANTSEEIT (3) to win
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by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink
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