Australian Analyst – Harness Racing Best Bets 21st-22nd August
Harness racing best bets and tips for August 21 and 22.
Queensland will be the focus for this weekend’s harness racing best bets as it is Qbred Triad Final night.
Four Group 1 races will be held at Albion Park on Saturday night, as the 2YO and 3YO pacers battle it out for $150,000 in prizemoney for each feature event. The 4YOs will compete at Group 2 level, as will the 2YO and 3YO trotting finals.
Magnificent Storm is the highlight in the west on Friday night, while Saturday night will see Melton hosting a very competitive FFA and the The VHRC Holmfield 3YO Trot at Group 3 level – they are races one and two on the program.
Gloucester Park (Friday, August 21)
Race 4
MAGNIFICENT STORM NZ (9) has a stranglehold on the Group 3 August Cup and he will be expected to dominate as the $1.10 favourite. He just notched his 50th career win last week and can make it three-straight wins since returning from a spell.
SOHO SHAKEDOWN (1) has won eight from 11 and quickly jumps into the deep end. His best chance here will be to repel any early challengers and trail Magnificent Storm. If he can do that, he has strong place claims. I’d look at playing exotics around the pair above and then throwing in OPAL HUNTER (3), IM LIGHTNING BANNER NZ (4), BETTORS PRIDE (5) and SWEET PINS NZ (10) into the back end of them.
Selections: 9-1-4-10
SOHO SHAKEDOWN (1) to place
Trifecta: 9 / 1 / 3,4,5,10
Trifecta: 9 / 3,4,5,10 / 1
Albion Park (Saturday, August 22)
Race 2
BRAVENTREACHEROUS (12) will be made to earn victory after drawing poorly, but he did that last week when racing 1 out 3 back and letting rip at the 400m mark to make up a stack of ground and sprint home in 54.1, 27.4. Driver Shane Graham will be hoping the likes of Captain Bart and Ohoka Dream put some early pressure on.
OHOKA DREAM (6) has been freshened up and has trialled sensationally; getting caught in the breeze would be the biggest worry. CAPTAIN BART (5) would love to lead and could run a big race if landing that position. FRENCH FRIES (11) has each-way claims, while ROCKSNGEMS (2) looks the best roughie in the race.
Selections: 12-6-5-11
BRAVENTREACHEROUS (12) to win
Race 3
RUBY RULES (3) should find the lead with stablemate Reds Ablaze on her back and Isla Rochelle three-back on the fence. With the barrier draw advantage, Ruby Rules should prove hard to beat. She is a last start winner but faces a big threat in the form of her stablemate Cool And Classy who may be forced to sit parked.
COOL AND CLASSY (10) is the class runner of the field and despite the barrier disadvantage, unless Ruby Rules hands up to her, she can still go close to winning. ISLA ROCHELLE (8) is having her first run for trainer Greg Franklin and Nathan Dawson will drive. In a race where I am not keen to back the two favourites due to being well found, I am happy to be with Isla Rochelle each-way, while also having a trifecta. Her form in NSW was very respectable.
Selections: 3-10-8-1
ISLA ROCHELLE (8) each way
Trifecta: 3,10 / 3,8,10 / 1,3,8,10
Race 4
FIRE AND PASSION (6) has the best career credentials to date and he easily won his heat as a $1.04 favourite. It will be harder this week as he won’t be strolling to the front and will have to do the work outside of the leader. He was second in the Redcliffe Derby when forced to take up that role. I am happy to side with him.
NITRATOR (3) has been crushing the clock for his final 400m and 800m splits. If he can land 1 out 1 back or 1 out 2 back, then he could be dangerous in this race at odds. PURE GRUNT (1) should lead and will give them plenty to catch. Next best is JAMES ALFRED (2) and IDEAL BRONSKI (11) who are both good enough to win too.
Selections: 6-3-1-2
FIRE AND PASSION (6) to win & NITRATOR (3) to win
Race 5
MAYWYN SON OF LOU (2) has won his past three starts, including the $100,000 APG Brisbane Sales Graduates Final. He has drawn to find the lead and looks the horse to beat in the race. There is a lot more depth now, so this will be a good test for Kelli Dawson’s gelding to see how good he really is.
SAVAGE SEAS (5) was a surprise winner two runs back at $61 when capturing the Group 3 Qbred Breeders Classic Final in 1:54.0. If Nathan Dawson can land him close enough in the run with cover, he will be dangerous. IM EL ARQUERO (8) will be hoping first emergency Jovial Jim doesn’t gain a start as that means he would begin behind Maywyn Son Of Lou. He was a good run in the heat. HUNT FOR GLORY (11) must overcome the outside of the back row. If anyone can do it, this colt is the one – still has good winning claims.
Selections: 2-5-8-11
MAYWYN SON OF LOU (2) to win
Race 6
STRIPES (7) has been well-backed in the early betting and her sectional times are better than all rivals. It looks like she will work across and grab the lead from stablemate Ruby Rhayne Bow. From there, Stripes will be extremely hard to beat.
RUBY RHAYNE BOW (2) has strong claims to run second, although she can win if Stripes underperforms. There is no value in the place market for her though, so I am looking for chief rival AMYLEE (11) to run a place. I’d still have something small on the win, but it will be hard to beat the Chantal Turpin pair.
Selections: 7-2-11-1
AMYLEE (11) each way
Race 7
SHINE LIKE ME (2) is the dominant favourite as she made it a hat-trick of wins in the heat last week. She can roll straight to the lead here and will take a power of beating from that position.
MULLUM SHOWGIRL (3) was an eye-catcher finishing second in her heat and that’s a pair of runner-up performances to begin her career. There is a lot to like about this filly and Angus Garrard continues to drive her. I don’t think the market is paying her enough respect and very keen on her at double figures.
MACKENZIE REG (1) will get a soft trip which will help her cause. REBECCA RHAYNE BOW (10) should be running home well.
Selections: 2-3-1-10
MULLUM SHOWGIRL (3) each way
Race 8
FREDIDRIVSAMERCURY (5) has been very impressive this season, winning three races from six starts. At his latest, he jumped a mile in grade to tackle The Stellar Square and The Great Square. He was beaten around 10m in both events which is incredible form for a race like this. If he brings any of his recent form, he should be hard to hold out.
SERENA LOVE (1) can mix her form which can make it hard to follow her. She won a pair of races in July and barrier one should help her run a good race. ICONIC IMAGE (8) and KICKING HORSE (9) should both acquit themselves well.
Selections: 5-1-8-9
FREDIDRIVSAMERCURY (5) to win
Race 10
PHOENIX REX (9) is an unbeaten Victorian trotter for trainer Steven Loftus. The colt has won all of his races at Melton, the latest in good time for a 2YO. This is his first standing start event so there is a query around that, but if he can step and settle, they should know that he is in the race.
HILLDALE HILTON (5) is prepared by NSW trainer Rickie Alchin and he had a spin around Albion Park last start, winning by 19.4m. That was his third-straight victory and he is the main danger here. IM FRANKEE (10) is the other key contender in the race and he is locally trained by Graham Dwyer. It will be a big upset if any other trotter wins.
Selections: 9-5-10-8
PHOENIX REX (9) to win
Melton (Saturday, August 22)
Race 1
FIGHTER COMMAND (11) competed in the Inter Dominion Championship held in Queensland, winning a heat and running fifth in the final. He has won seven times at Melton from 15 attempts and he will prove hardest to beat if he can run like he did in the Inter Dominion heat. This is a wide-open race though, so I don’t have a stack of confidence.
SIR JIMMY (10) is racing well and he is versatile, which means he should run well no matter how the event unfolds. CATCH A WAVE (7) has the best career to his name and the veteran is still capable of running well – he isn’t the superstar that he used to be, but the front row draw should see an aggressive drive. BULLETPROOF BOY (12) resumes after last racing in Perth for The Nullarbor and Fremantle Cup. He may need the run here.
Selections: 11-10-7-12
FIGHTER COMMAND (11) to win
Race 2
PASTOR DUNBAR (9) is a colt that has won five of his six career starts, including the Group 1 NSW Trotters Derby. He has trialled in preparation for his first-up run and should be ready to run a big race.
UNCLAD (11) won well last start and should have a couple of suitable rivals to track home into the race. He looks a good price at double figures. MUNNY THE MUNSTER (7) has the front row compared to the key trotters who all begin off the second line. He should run well. THE PREACHER (10) has won three of the past four and has strong each-way claims. NOTANOTHA NAUGHTY (8) is the other runner that could be in the finish with luck.
Selections: 9-11-10-7
PASTOR DUNBAR (9) to win & UNCLAD (11) to win
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by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink
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