Australian Analyst – Harness Racing Best Bets 16th-17th October
Harness racing best bets and tips for Friday and Saturday.
Captains Mistress looks poised to capture the Victoria Cup as Melton takes centre stage with the Victoria Derby and Oaks finals. Here are our harness racing best bets for the weekend’s action.
Barrier three will see Captains Mistress set to find the front and lead them a merry dance in the Group 1 Victoria Cup. Defending winner Kingman received the worst possible draw in eight and he faces a tough task of beating the Inter Dominion winner.
The Victoria Derby looks a great clash with Palladium, Brooklyn Dan, Nymbal and Enjoy Life clashing. In the Victoria Oaks, Bettor Beach and stablemate Willows Girl are the top two in betting.
Trotting finals for the Oaks and Derby will also be run as we preview both Group 1s.
At Albion Park, Leap To Fame should win again prior to his New Zealand Trotting Cup target.
Gloucester Park (Friday, October 16)
Race 4
D MAC NZ (1) is a great frontrunner and gets his chance to try and lead all the way in the 3YO Western Gateway. The $1.55 odds don’t appeal but it’s no surprise to see him so short in the market as he should get all the favours.
IDEAL BEACH (4) will have NSW reinsman Will Rixon driving and they may be able to land a 1 out 1 back or 1 out 2 back position with Im Stealthy and/or Havtimeformiki in the breeze. He won the Group 2 Westbred Classic Final, although meets a stronger field here. IM STEALTHY NZ (6) is as good as any horse in the race and he could still win despite his stablemate likely to have all the favours. HAVTIMEFORMIKI NZ (9) and PROPOSITION JOE NZ (11) are both nice horses and they look place hopes from the draws.
Selections: 1-4-6-11
IDEAL BEACH (4) each way
Race 5
COPY CAT QUEEN (2) was brilliant winning last week and looks hard to beat here. Getting crossed would be the main concern, especially if it were to see Delightful Peg in front. As long as Peg isn’t leading and either Copy Cat Queen is the leader or racing with cover, she will be hard to hold out.
DELIGHTFUL PEG NZ (5) is the key danger. If she leads, then she should win. She ran well last time from off the speed and has plenty of speed. FAKENIT (7) is probably next best but will have to do all the work again which leaves her vulnerable. SISTER CHERIE NZ (11) is a good value runner for exotics and potentially as a place chance.
Selections: 2-5-7-11
COPY CAT QUEEN (2) to win
Melton (Saturday, October 17)
Race 2
HALLEBESOFINE (4) looks the most likely leader as Jilliby Radiance is quickest and may cross Aldebaran Ada before taking cover on Hallebesofine. Trainer-driver Tina Ridis has never won a Group 1 and this looks to be the best chance here as the filly has been racing well. She was a big winner four runs back before finishing second in the Group 1 Vicbred Super Series Final. Her last two runs have been fine.
HARPERSEVEN (8) won the Group 1 Need For Speed Princess Final in comfortable fashion. The draw is tricky as she could be buried on the pegs, but she will finish strongly with luck and Chris Alford has 143 Group 1 victories to his name. ADELAIDE RED (9) is the other key winning hope in the race and she can run a slick last half. Next best is ALDEBARAN ADA (1).
Selections: 4-8-9-1
HALLEBESOFINE (4) to win
Race 3
THE ART OF SUCCESS (11) has a picket fence with 10 straight wins, the latest when sitting parked in 1:53.9 to capture the Group 2 Vicbred Super Series Final. She has the same barrier again and looks hardest to beat. The sprint distance brings others into the race but this mare is the best in the race so she should run well again.
SWEET IDEAL (2) has been smashed in betting from $14 into $3.50. Darryl Lawlor will be searching for the fence and then has options because Let Her Roll and Wicked Confession are likely going forward. LET HER ROLL (4) would be very dangerous if she lands some cover with James Herbertson driving. WICKED CONFESSION (7) can probably win but she is more likely a place chance.
Selections: 11-2-4-7
THE ART OF SUCCESS (11) to win
Race 4
LE CARDINAL (2) is a horse that has a devastating finishing burst. With his sit-sprint racing style, driver Amy Day won’t get involved and will be hoping to settle close enough in the run before asking for the supreme effort in the final lap. Three starts back he caused an upset to win a semi-final of the Vicbred Super series. He was third in a heat of the Victoria Derby and if the race is run to suit, he can make them all pay at double figures.
PALLADIUM NZ (4) won his heat well, dashing home in 54.4, 26.5. He won the Group 1 Queensland Derby from the breeze, so he could win this race several ways. ENJOY LIFE (9) has won 10 from 11 and they may be hoping there is a scratching which would allow the colt to begin from barrier nine instead of eight (emergency Kotare Rimu has that draw). BROOKLYN DAN (1) and NYMBAL NZ (3) could both win. It’s a cracking race!
Selections: 2-4-9-1
LE CARDINAL (2) each way
Race 5
HOPPY NZ (11) can reel off a quick 400m sectional and will be hoping there is plenty of pace up front, hoping a few of the leading hopes go too hard. This is a trotter on the rise and he won two starts ago defeating Imperial Monarch and Lovemeto. He was closing best last week when second behind Lovemeto, rattling home in 27.5 seconds. The draw over the sprint distance is not ideal, but that means we get huge odds and he is quick enough to surprise them if things pan out.
LOVEMETO NZ (6) bounced back last start with a tough win in the Woodlands Dullard Cup. The draw is a bit sticky, but they could press the button early. GANDHI MAIL ITA (7) is an NSW visitor with good gate speed and Cam Hart will press forward early. I AM WILMA (1) will be hoping not to get buried on the pegs because she can win. ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (9) and GOTFEELINGSYOUKNOW (5) aren’t without hope either. Extremely open race.
Selections: 11-6-7-9
HOPPY NZ (11) each way
Race 6
CAPTAINS MISTRESS NZ (3) leads and wins. The Inter Dominion champion should have no trouble capturing the Group 1 Victoria Cup from barrier three. She is $1.10 and rightly so with seven wins on the bounce. There isn’t much else to write about the champion mare.
KINGMAN NZ (8) is the defending winner but the back-to-back chances are slim from this draw. Finishing second would feel like a win as Luke McCarthy will have to decide whether to stay on the pegs and hope for luck or get off the pegs, give the leaders a big head start and look to run home. NYACK (5) needs to find the fence to be a place hope but the favourite is quick so that concerns me. CATCH A WAVE (9) and BULLETPROOF BOY (4) are best driven as snipers. They have place claims in the race. MAX DELIGHT (13) won the race in 2021 so it’s great to see him competing, although the draw puts him out of contention.
Selections: 3-8-4-9
KINGMAN NZ (8) to place
Race 7
BETTOR BEACH (4) is the dominant favourite for the Group 1 Victoria Oaks and if she finds the front, it looks all over for rivals. The speed map probably isn’t cut and dry though as Ripples has very good gate speed. The Queens Gambit could be keen to get up into the action early too. Bettor Beach is versatile though, so does look hard to beat, but the price looks unders.
WILLOWS GIRL (2) is the stablemate to Bettor Beach and will be trying to find the top early, potentially trying to hold out Ripples this time. She should get a nice run regardless of how the race is run, so happy to be with her to cause a mini upset. THE QUEENS GAMBIT NZ (7) was impressive in defeat last week and she looks the x-factor runner here. RIPPLES NZ (6) has been a nice filly throughout her career and she won the Group 1 Queensland Oaks when the market underestimated her. It would not be a shock to see her do it again.
Selections: 4-2-7-6
WILLOWS GIRL (2) to win
Trifecta: 2,4 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,4,6,7,11
Race 8
CIGANO (6) has quickly worked through the grades to tackle this FFA. A winner of 10 races from 16 starts, he smashed the clock last start, winning by 9.5m. There is a speed map disadvantage with main danger Our Sunset Delight drawn to lead. I think Cigano is a little sharper than that horse and he may still be too fast late for rivals.
OUR SUNSET DELIGHT (5) can lead for fun and will take some catching. He won twice at Menangle before a narrow second behind Bulletproof Boy. TRIPLE EIGHT NZ (8) is a veteran that is approaching 200 starts and he could cause an upset if the race is run upside down. COASTAL DRIVE (2) is next best.
Selections: 6-5-8-2
CIGANO (6) to win
Albion Park (Saturday, October 17)
Race 4
LEAP TO FAME (2) will have no trouble recording his 75th career victory by leading and winning at $1.02. Trying to find the horse to run second isn’t that easy because CATSEYE BEACH (1) can often run a slower last quarter than most FFA horses. For that reason, I am looking at COSMIC FLYER (3) to be three back on the pegs and run past Catseye Beach late. The same goes for SMARTER THAN YOU (5) who can reel off quicker closing sectionals than Catseye Beach. Happy to play the exotics and hoping the pole marker misses second place.
Selections: 2-3-5-1
Exacta: 2 / 3,5
Trifecta: 2 / 3,5 / 1,3,5
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by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink
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