Australian Analyst – Harness Racing Best Bets 14th-16th August

The Tasmanian Derby and Oaks will be held at Hobart on Sunday. Here is our harness racing best bets for the weekend’s most important races. 

We start off the weekend’s pacing action with Magnificent Storm in the FFA at Gloucester Park on Friday night, quickly followed by the Listed Marathon Handicap over 3309m.

At Menangle on Saturday night, highlights include the NSW Pink Diamond Stakes, Captain Knock’s stranglehold on the FFA and the Listed Norms Daughter Stakes.

Finally, Tasmania gets some attention on Sunday, taking centre stage on the day with the Tasmanian Derby and Tasmanian Oaks worth $40,000 each.

---

Gloucester Park (Friday, August 14)

Race 4

MAGNIFICENT STORM NZ (9) was breathtaking in his return, winning in 1:52.8 over the 1730m which is quick around Gloucester Park. Stepping up to the 2130m, there doesn’t look to be a horse on the front line that would be keen to hold out the star pacer. Victory would be the 50th of his career, a remarkable achievement from both the horse and trainer Ray Williams.

BETTORS PRIDE (10) is racing well and while he will need luck, he can finish strongly if he gets clear running. I am not sure if MASTER PUBLISHER NZ (1) can hold them early because TALKS UP A STORM (2) and IM LIGHTNING BANNER NZ (3) are generally quicker beginners. Horses drawn on the fence behind Magnificent Storm will have the best chance to run a place. NEVER ENDING (8) is second-up, but the draw looks horrible once again.

Selections: 9-10-1-3

BETTORS PRIDE (10) to place

---

Race 5

BRICKIES DREAM NZ (12) is one of two class horses of the field and he must overcome a 40m handicap in order to claim victory. The Marathon Handicap is 3309m so he will have plenty of time to make up the deficit. He hasn’t been far away in FFA grade recently and this is a class drop. If he can get a cart up behind Luvbite, then he will be dangerous.

LUVBITE (13) is thriving in WA, winning six races at Gloucester Park from 14 attempts. He won from 40m last start and now goes back to the 50m in a slightly harder race. Expect him to go close again. CAPTAINS CREEK NZ (2) will enjoy the front line and if he can get the lead from Dawson early, I’d expect him to run a cheeky race in front. ARTFUL MAJOR (7) and STORMY VISTA NZ (8) look the other key players in the race.

Selections: 12-13-2-7

BRICKIES DREAM NZ (12) to win

---

Menangle (Saturday, August 15)

Race 5

GO EASY ON ME (10) is a Victorian filly that has showed plenty of talent. She was enormous in defeat five runs back at Wagga in 1:52.3. She can peel off a lightning-quick final 400m and 800m. The barrier does hurt and she is first-up from a spell. She will need things to go right but has Luke McCarthy driving which is a positive.

ONE MORE REASON (7) joins Jason Grimson and sometimes that is simply enough to just win. He can often get the best out of horses and this filly has already run well against some of the top horses in the 3YO fillies’ division. She looks a huge chance here. HIGHINDELIGHT (5) impressed at her last start. CAPTURE OUR HEART NZ (2) draws well and could figure. WHERES MY REASON (6) has smaller claims too.

Selections: 10-7-5-2

GO EASY ON ME (10) to win

---

Race 6

CAPTAINS KNOCK (11) obliterated rivals at Albion Park last start in 1:48.7. If he runs 80 per cent as well as that effort, he will be winning here. He looks a good multi builder for the weekend because it is hard to see how he gets beat by any horse in this field. Sit back and watch the clock if Jason Grimson lets him run.

CAPTAIN BELLASARIO (2) could be an improver from the inside gate as trainer Luke McCarthy will drive. He hasn’t been far away from bad draws and this looks his best chance to try and land a minor placing, especially if Captains Knock tears along in front, as being on the pegs will be an advantage. BETTER ECLIPSE (9) and UBETCHA TIGERPIE (8) have place claims.

Selections: 11-2-8-9

CAPTAIN BELLASARIO (2) to place

---

Race 7

BELLA DANZA (7) should be able to find the lead as she returns to trainer Jason Grimson. She won the Norms Daughter Stakes last year and has strong claims of winning it again. Her Queensland campaign saw her win twice, including the Listed Fleur De Lil Ladyship Stakes when beating Eye Keep Smiling. Golden Fire got the better of her in two recent attempts, but she doesn’t follow her south.

STENO (9) won at Albion Park in 1:49.4 four runs back. Since then, she performed below her best in two races and then was much better last start. Returning to Menangle could be a good thing. LUX AETERNA (10) needs luck from this draw but is racing very well. JILLIBY ILLUMINATE NZ (3) could run a race at big odds.

Selections: 7-9-10-3

BELLA DANZA (7) to win

---

Melton (Saturday, August 15)

Race 5

SOME HIGH (5) would love to find the front which is how he won last start. He has been freshened up for the Youthful Stakes for 2YO colts and geldings. Kerryn Manning gets the drive back with Mark Pitt driving Cardigan Sniper.

CARDIGAN SNIPER (8) is the only runner on the back row which means he can get off the fence straight away. He won well last time and has also been freshened up after capturing that rich APG Final. This is harder than what he faced in the APG Final. BAYSTYLE (6) drawing outside Some High is a big blow to his chances. He has good sectionals beside his name and can win if things panned out. FARROH JOE (2) gets the driver upgrade with Chris Alford booked and LAKE COMO (4) is the unknown in this class with Herby driving.

Selections: 5-8-6-2

SOME HIGH (5) to win

---

Race 6

OZZIE TART (4) brings a different form line to the race and she has changed stables since winning at Launceston in 1:56.8. She was running good sectionals in Tasmania and should be competitive here if she brings either of her last two runs with her.

ONELOOK (5) looked good when resuming and given a soft run before finding the line strongly. She looks a big chance in this. LA CANTATRICE (7) has won two of her past three starts. The wide draw makes it interesting because if she was drawn better, she would lead and win. Still could chance the arm with her gate speed, but that’s not a certainty.

Selections: 4-5-7-2

OZZIE TART (4) to win

---

Hobart (Sunday, August 16)

Race 5

ENJOY LIFE (9) is the favourite to capture the Listed Tasmanian Derby and he looks very hard to hold out here. The colt is prepared by Emma Stewart and has won all six career starts. Five of those have been in Tasmania; the latest was a 1:52.4 Melton victory where he worked hard in the run and still won easily.

ZIHUATANEJO (10) warmed up with a 16.4m demolition against inferior opposition last start as David Miles reunited with the horse. He previously trained the gelding and he looks to have strong place prospects. LIKEYOUFORAREASON (6) is a nice local horse, winning five times from nine starts. He tackled The Beautide last start and didn’t have much luck, so can be forgiven for that run. ROCKY ROCKS (4) is next best.

Selections: 9-10-4-6

ENJOY LIFE (9) to win

---

Race 9

ROCKNROLL WILLOW (7) looks to have the Tasmanian Oaks at her mercy. A winner of seven from 13, the Victorian is a short-priced favourite on the back of defeating a talented Emma Stewart runner at Melton. It’s hard to see how they will beat her and that is why she is $1.25.

I am struggling to separate a lot of the locals here, so I would prefer to just let this race go. JILLSTIGER (8) should enjoy a soft pegs trip, as will MY FATAL CHARM (1). SOHO TIGER LILY (6) is racing well and can leave the arm quickly. SWEETHEART DIOR (2) and SHEMEANSBUSINESS (3) should both be respected too.

Selections: 7-8-1-6

---

 

For complete harness racing fields, click here.

by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink