Australian Analyst – Harness Racing Best Bets 13th-14th November
Harness racing best bets and tips for Friday and Saturday.
A relatively quiet weekend of harness racing in Australia this week with New Zealand taking the spotlight. There is still plenty of good races to preview, so here are our harness racing best bets for Friday and Saturday.
Starting on Friday night at Gloucester Park, leading WA Pacing Cup hope Minstrel contests the Group 2 James Brennan Memorial over 2536m. He meets talented 4YO Cyclone Jordy, fellow millionaire Mighty Ronaldo and stablemates Golden Lode and Harrison John.
On Saturday, Melton hosts the Group 3 Australasian Trotting Championship which features Lovemeto, Hoppy, Crackerjack, Im Bobby and Imperial Monarch. That meeting begins with the Listed Melton Casey Classic with Emma Stewart having four runners in the race, led by Faitplay and Storms Collide. Geelong Pacing Cup winner Jilliby Nitro comes up with barrier one, while Bulletproof Boy has the second row.
Jason Grimson’s pair of Dangerous and Hi Manameisjeff should fight out the Italian Cup at Menangle.
Gloucester Park (Friday, November 13)
Race 2
EASTBRO CHRISSY (3) is racing very well for the Hall stable and her early speed could give Penny Black something to think about. Whether Gary Hall Jnr can cross over, which would make her the mare to beat, or he can grab some cover behind one of the stablemates Wonderful To Fly or Fakenit, Eastbro Chrissy should have something to offer late. She has been running the quickest last quarters in the event and looms as a big contender.
PENNY BLACK NZ (1) galloped out from this draw three starts back, although there was a gear issue. I prefer her not being used early, so happy to take her on at the $1.55 odds here. If she holds the lead, then she will almost certainly win.
UP AND ALIVE (6) needs luck from the draw but she is faster than most of the horses in this field. She may just get too far back though – best roughie in the race. WONDERFUL TO FLY (4), STARLIGHT DREAM (10), DELULU (11) and REINETTE (12) look to have place hopes at best.
Selections: 3-1-6-11
EASTBRO CHRISSY (3) to win
Race 5
MINSTREL NZ (12) is the class horse of the field and his first-up victory was dominant as he found the lead and smashed rivals by 12.5m. He will be outside the leader at some stage, applying pressure to the frontrunner to make it a staying test. He goes on top but I can’t take $1.80 as there looks to be dangers in the race. I am hoping for a drift to get involved.
BRICKIES DREAM NZ (10) is going to be relying on luck from the inside of the back row, but being three back on the pegs can be a good spot to be over the staying trip with a pressure horse like Minstrel in the race. He is massive odds and was second behind Minstrel last start.
CYCLONE JORDY NZ (2) should lead and I think he could give Minstrel a run for his money. He failed twice when trying to breeze, so toughness doesn’t look an attribute this speedy horse possesses at this stage of his career. MIGHTY RONALDO (1) was unlucky not to win last start and has each-way claims. Next best is HARRISON JOHN NZ (7) and LINCOLN LOU NZ (5).
Selections: 12-10-2-1
BRICKIES DREAM NZ (10) each way
Melton (Saturday, November 14)
Race 1
FAIRPLAY (2) is one of four Emma Stewart-trained horses in the race and Mark Pitt continues his association with the entire. He was a beaten favourite in the Vicbred Super Series Final, with that run being his only defeat this campaign. He has won all of the other six this prep, including a 1:51.9 demolition over the 1720m at Melton. He looks the logical leader in the race and should prove hard to run down.
JILLIBY NITRO (1) won back-to-back Geelong Pacing Cups three runs back and a soft trip should suit perfectly as Jason Lee will make use of the sprint lane. This looks a good spot to be as runners back in the field may struggle to get into the contest.
YAMBUKIAN (4) is flying right now, finishing a narrow second behind Fox Dan last start. He hasn’t been far away in most of his recent runs and was a winner five runs back. STORMS COLLIDE (6) may have to sit parked which hurts his chances, but he won in 1:51.1 at Swan Hill last start which was a track record. BULLETPROOF BOY (10) has a lot against him here, so place chances look best.
Selections: 2-1-4-6
FAIRPLAY (2) to win
Trifecta: 1,2 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,6
Race 5
HOPPY NZ (4) is one of the more exciting Victorian trotters racing right now as he thrives on a soft run and powerful finishing burst. The key is stepping well and trying to grab some cover close to the speed. He won the Maryborough Trotters Cup in a track record 1:58.6 for the 2690m and looks a big chance to take home the Australasian Trotting Championship. The staying distance is suitable too.
CRACKERJACK NZ (11) raced well in Queensland without winning, running minor placings in The Great Square and two other races. The first-up run over this distance is an obvious query but he could be double figures which is an appealing price.
LOVEMETO NZ (3) is a deserved favourite with enough experience in stands and staying trips. He was third behind Hoppy at Maryborough but didn’t have much luck. He should make his own luck this time around. IM BOBBY (6) and IMPERIAL MONARCH NZ (7) both have each-way claims in a competitive trotting event.
Selections: 4-11-3-6
HOPPY NZ (4) to win & CRACKERJACK NZ (11) to win
Race 8
LOUS MAMBO (1) is the most experienced juvenile of the field and this is a tough Sapling Stakes for the boys. Two runs ago he put the writing on the wall with a third where he sat parked against Ozzie Tart and Catch The Captain. He then led all the way to win easily at St Arnaud. Driver Liam Older will be trying to hold the back of Catch The Captain which would give him his best chance to win.
CATCH THE CAPTAIN (2) should appreciate the drop back to 1720m because he should be the leader in the race. He won in 1:55.4 on debut over course and distance. WINCHESTER BOY (4) and HUNTER VALLEY RED (6) both won on debut and could win again. BETTORBUST (7) has the most career wins with three and despite the car park draw, he looks versatile.
Selections: 1-2-7-6
LOUS MAMBO (1) each way (only 2 place dividends)
Race 9
TWIGSTAR (2) is unbeaten in three runs for trainer Scott Ewen and she looks to have the Sapling Stakes for fillies at her mercy despite there being three Emma Stewart runners, including two of them on debut. Twigstar won in a slick 1:53.7 last start, winning by 11.9m over Ozzie Tart. It looks her race to lead and win, but the odds of $1.45 reflect that.
SPOOKY MOTH (1) has reasonable trial form but will need to be ready to tackle the smart Twigstar. Mark Pitt would probably be keen to take a trail on the favourite and hope that the filly can run her down in the straight.
OZZIE TART (3) has won three from 13 and was a last start winner beating Catch The Captain.
Selections: 2-1-3-5
No Bet
Menangle (Saturday, November 14)
Race 5
HI MANAMEISJEFF NZ (7) and DANGEROUS (9) are equal favourites at $2 and I can’t split them. Being stablemates, it leaves the door more open to a potential hand up from Hi Manameisjeff. They both have a clear class advantage over the rest of the field and it would be a little bit of a surprise to see both get beaten.
SAINT CRUSADER (3) is ticking along nicely and appeals as a place prospect in the event. Two starts back he was second behind Swayzee who belted the field by 17.4m, but Saint Crusader was clearly the best of the rest. If he could land close enough to the speed on the pegs, he could finish into the placings.
Selections: 7-9-3-4
SAINT CRUSADER (3) to place
Albion Park (Saturday, November 14)
Race 1
MOSTERT NZ (9) had won four straight races prior to being beaten by Bainbridge last start when racing 1 out 2 back. He gets the same barrier this time and could map similar to last start. Whether Pete McMullen opts to put him into the race or come with one run may depend on the tempo.
FOR REAL LIFE (3) will likely search for the front and would prove hard to catch if he could find that position. He was placed behind champion Leap To Fame two runs back.
AIR EXPRESS (6) carves out quick sectionals and looks to have solid claims despite barrier six being a little tricky. DOUGS FLAME (2) and BIRKIRKARA (4) are stablemates that could surprise at odds. MIRACLE MOOSE NZ (1) is a place chance from the draw.
Selections: 9-3-6-2
MOSTERT NZ (9) to win
Race 4
GOLDEN SUNSET (3) draws inside of Keayang Stuka and that could prove the difference if Nathan Dawson can hold the front. He won two in a row, including a win over Keayang Stuka and Pinnie before finishing second to Keayang Stuka. This should be another good clash but the barrier advantage has swayed me in favour of Shawn Grimsey’s trotter.
KEAYANG STUKA (4) is enjoying the change of scenery in Queensland for new trainer and driver Shane Graham. It was a comfortable victory last time but it will be harder here.
MUFASA METRO NZ (8) is approaching 100 career starts with this being his 96th. While he is probably past his best, he can still run a nice race here and has good place claims. ALDEBARANSTILINSKI (1) can be hit and miss but the draw should help the cause.
Selections: 3-4-8-1
GOLDEN SUNSET (3) to win
Race 5
FINAL DEADLINE NZ (7) has been freshened up following a September victory where he defeated Fate Awaits. Last prep, he won the Redcliffe Gold Cup in dominant fashion and also won the 4YO Championship. There could be a good speed battle between this horse and Attachment early, with both being some of the quickest beginners around. He can work in his races and still win too.
ATTACHMENT (3) has won five of his past six starts and is currently the race favourite. Whether he leads or trails, he should be fighting out the finish.
MOSTERT NZ (4) is the emergency and it will be interesting if Pete McMullen drives this horse instead if he gains a start. He is definitely good enough to win here but I am leaving him out of my selections because he isn’t currently in the race. TIMS A TROOPER (1) could get buried on the pegs which means he is more of a place hope unless everything goes right. CAPTAIN SHUFFLES (8) is next best.
Selections: 7-3-1-8
FINAL DEADLINE NZ (7) to win
For complete harness racing fields, click here.
by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink
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